Pitt Plank

By John Franco

I haven’t been overly critical of Clint Hurdle here at PittPlank. I know that he leaves some things to be desired when it comes to in-game management, but his ability to maintain a positive clubhouse, and his positive influence on some of the Pirates’ hitters, have usually outweighed his deficiencies. Not last night.

I’m not in the Pirates’ clubhouse, so I don’t know if they’ve given up. I don’t know if Hurdle’s positive attitude has gotten stale, or he hasn’t been able to keep the team focused on the positive during this awful stretch (9-21 in their last 30 games). But after last night, even if you could find a Clint Hurdle apologist, even they would say that his loyalty to “veteran” players and his inability to manage his in-game roster is costing the Pirates wins. For example:

Total innings pitched by Kyle McPherson, Justin Wilson, and Bryan Morris in last night’s 14-inning loss to the Reds: 0

Total innings pitched by Rick VandenHurk: 0.2 (and then he lost the game)

I don’t know if you can blame Neal Huntington for anything that happened last night, unless you simply want to blame him for Hurdle’s continued presence in the dugout. He’s given Hurdle fresh, talented arms in the bullpen – the aforementioned McPherson, Wilson and Morris – and Hurdle didn’t use them when it mattered most. I’ve got nothing against VandenHurk personally, but I don’t think an objective observer would have picked him as the best choice to pitch the 14th inning.

Another example? Dejan Kovacevic covers the Chase d’Arnaud incident pretty well: Hurdle pinch ran for Garrett Jones (the Pirates’ best hitter) in the 10th inning, when Jones wasn’t even the lead runner. I guess Hurdle was worried that Pedro Alvarez might ground into a double play, and hoped that d’Arnaud would help avoid that? Alvarez grounds into a double play 1.81 times every 100 plate appearances. What percentage of DP’s would d’Arnaud avoid that Jones wouldn’t? Maybe 10 percent? I can’t understand losing your best hitter to prevent something that might happen 2 times out of 1000.

One more example? Wandy Rodriguez was pulled after just 89 pitches and a pair of soft 2-out singles. Jared Hughes promptly gave up a game-tying double to Dioner Navarro. That doesn’t fit with Hurdle’s “I love veterans” approach, but it also didn’t make any sense. Hurdle said after the game that he would have hated to see Rodriguez give up a 3-run homer. Well, so would everyone else, but Navarro has a career .357 slugging percentage. Isn’t Hurdle supposed to be a players’ manager? Judging by Rodriguez’ reaction, he clearly wanted to stay in the game.

One final example? Rod Barajas batting averages by month: .143, .302, .190, .149, and .185 in August. Yet Hurdle continues to play him. I know that Michael McKenry hit just .237 in August and is clearly struggling, but he has to be a better option than Barajas right now.

I know Hurdle isn’t likely to be fired during the season. I know he’ll probably take the blame (and the fall) if the Pirates finish below .500 for the season. I have no idea who the Pirates could bring in that might do a better job (now or later). All I know is that the final hurdle to a .500 season might be a Hurdle they can’t overcome.

By John Franco

One thing is clear: with 26 games to go, the Pirates are just 1.5 games out of the second Wild Card spot in the National League, and that’s awesome. The rest of the Wild Card picture? It’s about as clear as mud. Here’s a quick look at where things stand:

Washington Nationals (threat level: low)

The Nationals currently hold a 7.5 game lead over the Braves in the NL East. Ideally, they’ll hold onto their lead, beat the Braves and Cardinals a few times along the way, and stay out of the Pirates’ hair. The Nats have won 8 of their last 9 games and have “easy” games remaining against the Marlins, Mets, Phillies and Brewers. Unfortunately, they’re about to shut their ace pitcher (Stephen Strasburg) down for the season, and you never know what might happen after that.

Atlanta Braves (threat level: moderate)

At 78-60, the Braves hold the higher Wild Card spot and a 3.5 game lead over the Cardinals. Their remaining schedule is ridiculously easy (6 games each against the Mets and Marlins) and their biggest threat to the Pirates is the 3 games they will play to end the season in October. The Braves just took 3 of 4 from the hapless Rockies and their pitching is red hot. Unless they can chase down the Nationals, they are likely to host the other Wild Card winner.

St. Louis Cardinals (threat level: high)

At 74-63, the Cardinals currently hold the second Wild Card spot. Their run differential is staggeringly high (+97)  but they are just 4-5 in their last 9 games, including losing 2 of 3 to the Pirates at the end of August. The Cards do have 9 games remaining against the hapless Astros and Cubs, but also have to make a trip to the west coast to face the red-hot Padres and mercurial Dodgers. They end the season with 6 games against the Reds and Nationals, who are currently fighting for home field advantage in the National League. The Pirates need both teams to need those games.

Los Angeles Dodgers (threat level: potato)

At 73-65, the Dodgers are tied with the Pirates at 1.5 games out of the second Wild Card spot, but the Pirates have played two fewer games. The Dodgers are just 8-12 in their last 20 games despite adding over a quarter billion dollars in future payroll with trades for Hanley Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett. Their remaining schedule is tougher than the other contenders (6 games with the Giants, 4 with the Cardinals, 3 with the Reds, 3 with the Padres and 3 with the Nationals), but none of those other teams are running out a lineup full of all-stars every night. If you can guess what the Dodgers are going to do with their remaining 23 games, I’d suggest you book a flight to Vegas.

San Francisco Giants (threat level: low)

The Giants hold a 4.5 game lead over the Dodgers for the NL West. As mentioned above, the teams have six games remaining against each other, and it’s conceivable that the Dodgers could push the Giants back into the Wild Card race. All 25 of the Giants remaining games are against division rivals (6 each with the Dodgers, D-Backs, and Padres, as well as 7 with the Rockies), and San Francisco has an encouraging 28-19 record against their division this season. Like the Nationals, the hope here is that the Giants win their division and bury their rivals in the process.

Arizona Diamondbacks and Milwaukee Brewers (threat level: low)

The Diamondbacks (5 games behind the Pirates) and Brewers (5.5 games back) are hanging onto their playoff hopes by a thread. After being left for dead following sweeps by the Padres and Reds, Arizona split a 4-game series with the Dodgers and took 2 of 3 from the Giants. After sweeping the Pirates, Milwaukee managed only a 4-game split with the Marlins this week. Neither team is likely to be a serious threat, but you could have said that about the Rays and Cardinals last year.

By John Franco

It’s been a roller-coaster week for the Pirates. After losing two of three games to the lowly Brewers over the weekend, their season was teetering on the brink of destruction. After their heartbreaking 4-3 loss to the Cardinals on Monday, their playoff chances were dead, and even their ability to finish .500 was in question. After their 9-0 win over the Cardinals on Tuesday, their season is saved and the Cardinals are a non-factor in the playoff race. 

Josh Harrison obliterating Yadier Molina on a collision at the plate shows that the Pirates still have some fight left in them. James McDonald allowing two hits in seven shutout innings means that he’s regained the Cy Young form he flashed in the first half. Pedro Alvarez hitting two monster home runs means that he’s ready to go on a tear and carry the Pirates to the playoffs. Clint Hurdle arguing that both benches should have been warned last night after Jake Westbrook plunked Harrison… never mind, even I can’t figure out the spin on that one.

Some of these things are undoubtedly true, but they’ve been blown out of proportion by the need to fit everything into a neat little box. Heading into Wednesday’s series finale with the Cardinals, the Pirates have a record of 69-60 with 33 games left. They need to win 12 of their remaining games to finish .500, and 13 to finish with a winning record. They probably need to win between 17 and 21 of those games to make the playoffs.

During those 33 games, lots of things will happen. Pedro will probably hit some monster home runs. J-Hay will show his relentless energy. Andrew McCutchen will get some hits, and maybe come out of his slump. Pirate fans will experience dizzying highs after every win, and soul-crushing lows after every loss. Then the season will end. Maybe it will end after 162 games, and maybe it won’t. Some of these things will matter in the grand scheme of things, but most of them won’t. Some of them will have an impact on the next day’s game, and some of them won’t. All of them are pretty much inevitable, unless the Mayans were right about the year but wrong about the date.

Just remember this: the Pirates are in the playoff race. Let’s say that again: the Pirates are in the playoff race. I was at the game last night, and it was fun. The Pirates were playing meaningful baseball in late August, and the fans appreciated it.

I’m going to do my best to spend the next 33 games enjoying the ride, and not trying to figure out what it all means. I suspect the games will be stressful enough without the need to understand their place in the great cosmic puzzle. Let’s let the players play, and remember that we have all winter to worry about it all means.