May 16, 2012

Alex Presley sent down

By John Franco

The Pirates optioned Alex Presley to Triple-A on Wednesday, a move that was easily justified by his 3-for-38 performance in May. As a short-term move, the Pirates called up Evan Meek in his spot, giving them 8 relievers and only 4 hitters on the bench. After Wednesday’s game, the Pirates will likely send down a reliever and call up a replacement hitter.

Against a left-handed pitcher on Wednesday, the Pirates played Yamaico Navarro in left field, then double-switched Nate McLouth into the outfield as Navarro’s replacement. Both players would be very bad long-term options, so the Pirates will need to find another solution that offers some hope of not being completely awful.

One option would be Matt Hague, who went 1-for-9 in his brief time in the majors earlier this season and owns a mediocre .273/.317/.309 line at Triple A. A more popular option (at least among fans) would be Starling Marte, who is hitting .261/.323/.437 at AAA. with 27 strikeouts in 33 games.

Marte ranks third among Indianapolis hitters with a .760 OPS – Jeff Clement leads the team at .795 and Jake Fox ranks second with a .778 mark. Both players are veterans (28 and 29 years old, respectively) and would be a defensive disaster in the outfield. For a short term fix, either player could play first base poorly while Garrett Jones moves to right field and Jose Tabata shifts to left field.

The Pirates could also call up defensive wizard Gorkys Hernandez (.259/.341/.353) or call up an infielder like Chase d’Arnaud or Jordy Mercer and experiment with a mashup of Navarro, McLouth and Josh Harrison in the outfield. Mercer (.281/.361/.388) might be worth a shot, but d’Arnaud is only hitting .167 at Triple-A and has already failed in the majors. McLouth is hitting .174 and probably shouldn’t be in the majors, but with Presley’s demotion, the Pirates are probably stuck with him.

None of the Pirates’ options in left field are very good. Marte needs more time in Triple-A, and calling him up now would probably be a panic move for a team that isn’t as good as their 17-19 record shows. Hague has earned a shot at some real playing time, and despite his middling numbers this year, doesn’t have much to prove in the minors. I think it’s time to bring back #freeMattHague – at least for a little while.

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May 8, 2012

Steve Blass Speaks w/Ira Glass

I wanted to share a clip from a This American Life episode during which Ira Glass speaks with former Pirate Steve Blass.  Very interesting stuff.  Blass, 70, has a book coming out soon called A Pirate for Life.

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Filed under General, Off-the-Field, Paul Sporer Posts

April 17, 2012

Pitching to contact

By John Franco

Searching through the advanced pitching metrics on Fangraphs.com, I thought I came across a positive sign for the Pirates. Their pitchers lead the league in inducing swings on pitches outside the strike zone, a statistic called O-Swing%. Opposing hitters have chased 33.8% of all pitches the Pirates have thrown outside the zone this year.  (On the opposite end of the spectrum, hitters have only chased 24.1% of pitches outside the zone against the Mariners.)  For the Pirates, it sounds like a good thing, but I’m not sure it is.

Usually when a pitcher gets a hitter to chase a pitch out of the zone, the goal is a swinging strike. For the Pirates, things haven’t really worked out that way. Hitters have put the ball in play 74.7% of the time (this statistic is called O-Contact%) when swinging at pitches outside the zone – the second highest contact rate in the major leagues. (By comparison, the worst contact rate on pitches out of the zone belongs to the Rangers at 55.7%).

Put simply, hitters are chasing pitches outside the zone against the Pirates, but they’re not missing when they swing. The results aren’t much better on pitches in the strike zone: hitters swing at 68.2% of pitches in the zone (most in the major leagues) and make contact 89.2% of the time (third highest in the majors). In 2011, the Pirates’ opponents ranked third in O-Contact% and tied for first in Z-Contact%.

The Pirates’ inability to miss bats has been a long-standing issue, one that Erik Bedard and AJ Burnett were brought in to address. Bedard hasn’t helped so far – his 72.7% contact rate outside the zone and 91.5% contact rate inside the zone are roughly in line with the Pirates’ team averages. The best swing-and-miss guy has been Juan Cruz  - perhaps not surprising, since his shaky command means that he doesn’t know where the ball is going any more than the hitter does. The worst offender has been Tony Watson, who actually hasn’t missed a bat this season (100% contact rate both inside and outside the strike zone).

Getting Burnett into the rotation will help the Pirates’ contact woes, since he would probably replace Kevin Correia, who had the worst swing-and-miss rates in the Pirates’ rotation last year. Beyond that, Joel Hanrahan and Evan Meek had success pitching outside the zone in 2011 (contact rate of 65% or less), but none of their pitchers really posted an impressive whiff rate on pitches in the zone. Pitching coach Ray Searage clearly has some work to do in figuring out how the Pirates can miss a few more bats. Hitters are already swinging at pitches outside the zone, which seems like the hard part, so the Pirates need to capitalize on that fact.

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April 14, 2012

The Pirates’ Offensive Offense

By John Franco

Through their first 7 games (as of April 13th), the Pirates have scored a grand total of 11 runs, and five of those runs came in one game – last Sunday’s win over the Phillies. The Pirates have already been shut out twice, including a 1-hitter by Matt Cain where pitcher James McDonald had the Pirates’ only hit. It’s easy to look at the Pirates’ opponents –  Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Vance Worley, Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Chris Capuano, and Cain – and chalk their struggles up to bunch of tough matchups. Their best games did come against their weakest competition: they scored five runs in the Worley game and two in the Capuano game, their only multi-run games of the season. The Pirates are on pace for just over 250 runs this season, a historically bad number they will certainly exceed, but the first few games have revealed some disturbing trends.

Of the Pirates’ top 9 offensive players – their opening day lineup plus Casey McGehee - only two have drawn a walk. As a team, the Pirates have drawn 7 walks and struck out 58 times. Their 26.4% strikeout rate is even worse than last year’s mark of 24.1%. Their offensive slash line is .178/.216/.260 and that includes a .360/.429/.440 line from Andrew McCutchen. Leadoff hitter Alex Presley is hitting a respectable .269, but he has yet to draw a walk, so that is also his on-base percentage. Pedro Alvarez hit a towering home run that left PNC Park on a fly, but that was his only hit in 16 at-bats, and he has struck out 10 times. James McDonald and Kevin Correia each have one hit – the same number as Alvarez, Neil Walker and Rod Barajas.

Coming into the season, the Pirates’ offense wasn’t expected to be good. Barajas posted a .287 OBP last year, while Barmes posted a .312 mark, and those were the players brought in to improve the offense. Presley posted a 2.7% walk rate last year and was penciled into the leadoff spot this year. Alvarez hasn’t hit well in the majors since 2010. The Pirates were counting on a rebound from Alvarez, continued improvement from Presley, Walker and Jose Tabata, and for McCutchen to continue following the Barry Bonds career trajectory.

Even with the Pirates’ horrible start, there have been some signs of hope. Walker has posted a strikeout rate similar to his 2011 season, so there is every reason to expect a rebound for him.  McGehee has gotten off to a good start. Presley has looked good at the plate, and looks like someone who could hit .290 or better, despite his aversion to walks. The Pirates played Josh Harrison at shortstop yesterday, moving a step closer to keeping Matt Hague on the roster. Tonight, the Pirates will face Barry Zito, who was the Giants’ worst starter last year. Starling Marte has a .286/.342/.457 for Triple-A Indianapolis and should be able to help the Pirates’ offense by mid-season.

And, of course, McCutchen has hit like Bonds early in the season. Better than Bonds, actually. Barry won his first MVP award in 1990, his fifth season. This is only McCutchen’s fourth season, so this year is a freebie in his endless chase for Bonds’ legacy. Bonds won that MVP on a team that won 95 games, and was surrounded by other players who could actually hit, but the year before his MVP, the ’89 Pirates ranked 8th out of 12 NL teams in runs per game. It’s a stretch, but if you are looking for reasons to be optimistic about this year’s Pirate offense, waiting until next year might be your best bet.

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April 5, 2012

Fast Five: Opening Day

By John Franco

The Pirates played the Phillies tough on Opening Day, but they couldn’t pull out the win, losing 1-0 thanks to dominating performances from Roy Halladay and Jonathan Papelbon. Here’s a quick list of takeaways from the game:

1. The first inning sucked. Alex Presley led off the Pirates’ season with a single in the bottom of the first, and Jose Tabata followed with an infield single. The Pirates couldn’t ask for anything more than their new $51 million dollar man at the plate with 2 runners on base and the best pitcher in baseball on the ropes. Unfortunately, Andrew McCutchen scorched a ground ball right at Jimmy Rollins for a double play. Neil Walker flew out to end the inning, and the Pirates didn’t get another hit for the rest of the game. They also didn’t draw any walks, but they did reach on a pair of hit batsmen.

2. The weather was beautiful. I’ve been to some opening days that required blankets and coffee, but today wasn’t one of them. The Pirates don’t always have great weather, but days like today bring out the best in PNC Park.

3. The Pirates’ opening day payroll is about $63 million (from USA today). Halladay and Papelbon will receive $31 million this year – but at least they have a good chance of earning it. The Phillies will pay Ryan Howard and Chase Utley $35 million – and they aren’t going to earn it. The Phillies might envy the Pirates’ young talent, but their payroll shows why they don’t really need it.

4. Erik Bedard pitched very well. The Phillies’ lineup, without Howard and Utley, is less intimidating than it was in years past. Bedard allowed 6 hits in 7 innings, walking just 1 and striking out 4. He was very efficient, throwing just 81 pitches in 7 innings. If Bedard can give the Pirates 150 more innings like the 7 he pitched today, their chase for .500 will get a huge boost.

5. McCutchen was probably safe on the last play of the game. Placido Polanco‘s throw appeared to pull Ty Wigginton off the bag, but umpire Larry Vanover called McCutchen out. It was tough to see if Wigginton’s foot actually got back to the bag, but it looked to me like Cutch was safe. Hopefully this blown call won’t send the Pirates into a downward spiral like last year’s Jerry Meals debacle.

Bonus: Nate McLouth got a rousing ovation when he was introduced before the game, and another one when he pinch hit in the bottom of the 8th inning. Pirate fans seem excited to welcome back, and if he can succeed at all he’ll be one of the team’s more popular players.

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April 5, 2012

Matt Hague is free – but for how long?

By John Franco

After a red-hot spring, Matt Hague had Pirate fans clamoring for him to earn a spot on the Opening Day roster, and the team obliged thanks to some creative roster maneuvering. The Pirates placed Charlie Morton on the 15-day DL and, since they won’t need a fifth starter until April 15, they plan to carry an extra hitter until Morton returns. When Morton returns, the Pirates will have four infielders for three spots: Hague, Casey McGehee, Yamaico Navarro and Josh Harrison.

The Pirates have given Hague opportunities to start, platooning him with Jones while platooning McGehee with Pedro Alvarez. Hague got a start against Cliff Lee on Saturday, and another one against Clayton Kershaw on Tuesday. Things can only get easier for Hague going forward, but Morton could return by Saturday, so the Pirates will need to make a decision soon.

Whether Hague can force his way into the Pirates’ long-term plans will depend on this week’s performance and the Pirates’ trust level with Harrison at shortstop. McGehee and Harrison are longshots to be demoted, and the Pirates need Nate McLouth t0 back up center field and Michael McKenry to back up behind the plate. That leaves Navarro as the only realistic option to be demoted, but the Pirates would have to trust Harrison’s spring work at shortstop enough to carry him as their only backup. So far, Clint Barmes has played every inning at shortstop, so the Pirates haven’t even tried Harrison there lately.

If a combination of the Harrison gambit and Hague making a splash this week sounds like an unlikely scenario, that’s because it is. Hague had to hit .400 in 55 spring at-bats just to get a shot at making it happen, and he had to hit .309/.372/.457 at Triple-A last year just to get an extended look in spring training. At 26, Hague still has a chance to be part of the Pirates’ medium-term plans, either in a continued platoon with Jones or even by taking over the job. His age puts him at the beginning of his peak power years, and his 7 spring training home runs could be a sign that he is ready to realize his power potential.

Since Hague hit just 12 home runs in 141 games at Triple-A, and Jones hit 16 in the major leagues, Hague will need to take these chances to build on his spring power surge to stake his claim to what is supposed to be a power position. Jones is 30 and his accrued service time means that he is starting to get expensive, so the Pirates might jump at the chance to replace him if Hague starts to look competent.  Trusting Harrison at shortstop would give the Pirates a way to keep Hague around a little longer.

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March 28, 2012

Can Karstens do it again?

By John Franco

Last season, Jeff Karstens posted an impressive 3.38 ERA in 162.1 innings for the Pirates. He only earned a 9-9 record for his efforts, but his ERA was just outside the National League’s top 10 (Madison Bumgarner finished 10th with a 3.21 ERA).This year, Karstens has posted a 2.08 ERA in 13 spring innings as he continues to inspire hope for a repeat performance the Pirates’ shaky rotation desperately needs.

Karstens’ 2011 season looks less impressive when viewed through advanced metrics – he posted a 4.29 FIP and 4.00 xFIP, two metrics that attempt to show what a pitchers’ ERA should have been. He stranded 77% of his baserunners (the league average is around 70%) and opposing batters hit just .275 on balls in play (the league average is around .300). Put simply – Karstens pitched reasonably well, but he got lucky.

Of course, the reverse was true in 2010 – Karstens posted a 4.92 ERA, but his FIP was 4.82 and his xFIP was a much more reasonable 4.26. Despite an actual improvement of more than 1.5 runs per 9 innings between seasons, Karstens’ expected performance improved by only one-quarter of a run. Advanced metrics aren’t always perfect, and there are pitchers who consistently outperform their xFIP (poster boy: Matt Cain) and pitchers who consistently underperform their xFIP (poster boy: Ricky Nolasco). After two full seasons with the Pirates, Karstens has one year on each side of the fence, so it’s hard to predict where he will fall in 2012.

Looking at Karstens’ performance in 2010 and 2011, his underlying numbers show why his xFIP looked about the same in both years:

 

 

 

Other than a slight improvement in his ground ball rate, Karstens was essentially the same pitcher. Even his arsenal was basically the same (Pitch/FX data courtesy of Fangraphs):

 

FanGraphs also lists a cutter in Karstens’ arsenal – thrown 1.5% of the time in 2011, but not used in 2010. I found a couple mentions of Karstens throwing an “occasional cutter” including this article from earlier in March. It doesn’t appear to be a focus of Karstens’ efforts, but when your fastball averages 89 miles per hour you have to be willing to try anything. Otherwise, Karstens threw a few less breaking balls and added a few more changeups, but didn’t make any significant changes.

If Karstens didn’t change his arsenal, and didn’t have a noticeable change in his strikeout and walk numbers, does that mean he’s due for a regression back to his ugly 2010 numbers? The last time I looked at Karstens, I pointed out that 20 of his 22 home runs allowed in 2011 were solo shots, and an average number of runs allowed per homer would have inflated his ERA to 3.88. Karstens does benefit from an extremely low walk rate, so he might keep his R/HR rate below average, but 20 out of 22 probably isn’t happening again.

One way to predict what Karstens’ future might hold is to look at similar pitchers. His combination of K/9, BB/9 and GB% rates was fairly unique among MLB pitchers last year. The closest matches were Kyle Lohse (5.3 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, GB% of 41.4) and Mark Buehrle (4.8 K/9, 1.97 BB/9, GB% of 44.9, but a lefty). Buehrle posted a BABIP of  .294, and Lohse posted a stellar .269 mark. In 2010, Doug Fister posted numbers similar to Karstens’ 2011 numbers (4.89 K/9, 1.68 BB/9, GB% of 47.1) and ended up with a .302 BABIP.

So an anecdotal study of pitchers similar to Karstens shows that he might be able to sustain his luck in terms of BABIP, or at least not regress all the way to the .309 mark that he posted in 2010. Replacing Ronny Cedeno with Clint Barmes will certainly help Karstens, as will the continued improvement of Neil Walker at second base. Garrett Jones and Pedro Alvarez won’t do Karstens many favors at the corners, but the Pirates should have a strong defensive outfield. For a more analytical approach, Fangraphs offers a formula for calculating expected BABIP. Using that formula, we can see some amazing consistency from Karstens:

 

 

 

Defensive improvements aside, a few hits one way or the other won’t have as big an impact on Karstens’ season as his ability to keep the ball in the park. He allowed home runs on 12.5% of his fly balls in 2010, then cut that rate to 11.5% in 2011 while also allowing less fly balls. That dropped his HR/9 from an ugly 1.54 to a workable 1.25. He also cut his HR/AB rate against lefties from 4.61% in 2010 to 4.27% in 2011. While that may not seem like much, it’s representative of a larger success: Karstens went from having a 400-point difference in OPS against lefties to a 200-point difference.

I’ve thrown a lot of numbers around in this post, so let me sum things up as simply as I can. Karstens was fundamentally similar in 2010 (when he was unlucky) and 2011 (when he was lucky). In spite of the similar fundamentals, the subtle changes he did make (a few more ground balls, adding a few cutters, handling lefties better) are all positive. None of the projection systems listed on Fangraphs project him to have an ERA below 4.00, which is probably reasonable given all the possible avenues for regression to creep in. Nonetheless, I think Karstens can fool them all again and finish in the 3.70-3.90 range.  If Erik Bedard and AJ Burnett can pitch well enough that Karstens is the Pirates’ 3rd best pitcher with an ERA in that range, I think the Pirates will be happy with their starting rotation.

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March 25, 2012

Alvarez and Gordon

By John Franco

When Neal Huntington made his announcement that Pedro Alvarez will make the Pirates’ Opening Day roster regardless of his performance in the spring, he implied that Alvarez needs time at the major league level in order to sort out his problems. Huntington seemed to imply that Alvarez could go down to Triple-A and dominate, but it wouldn’t make much difference to his future. It’s a tough argument to consider – it seems Alvarez has had plenty of success at Triple-A, but has he really had enough to prove himself?

It’s interesting to compare Alvarez to the Royals’ Alex Gordon, a player who emerged from similar circumstances to become a breakout star in 2011. Alvarez was the second overall pick in 2008; Gordon was the second overall pick in 2005. Gordon made it to the major leagues quickly, struggled and eventually returned to the minor leagues to find himself. Then he posted a 6-WAR season for the Royals in 2011, a level which the Pirates would love to see Alvarez reach by 2014.

After being drafted as a 21-year old, Gordon signed too late to play in the minor leagues in his draft season. He started his pro career at Double-A, hitting .325/.427/.588 in 130 games for Wichita. Despite not playing in 2005, he was rated the #13 prospect in baseball prior to the 2006 season. Alvarez also started his pro career in the season following his draft season, coming into the year as the #12 prospect and hitting .288/.378/.535 between High-A and Double-A. For his efforts in his debut season, Gordon was ranked the #2 prospect in baseball going into the 2007 season. Alvarez didn’t quite make the same impression but was still ranked #8 by Baseball America.

In his second pro season, the Royals jumped Gordon all the way to the major leagues. He held his own as a 23-year old, hitting .247/.314/.411 in 151 games. Alvarez started his second season at Triple-A, hitting .277/.363/.533 in 66 games, and then earned a promotion to the Pirates where he hit .256/.326/461 in 95 games. At this point in their careers, Alvarez and Gordon were pretty comparable. G0rd0n had a little more major league experience, but Alvarez had hit better during his time in the majors.

In his third season, Gordon hit .260/.351/.432 for the Royals in 2008, swatting 16 home runs in 134 games. As a 24-year old with a monster pedigree, he might not have been setting the world on fire, but a 3-WAR season looked like a stop on the way to a solid major league career. Alvarez did not have the same success in 2011, hitting .191/.272/.289 in 74 games for the Pirates and .256/.365/.432 at Triple-A.

The 2012 season will be Alvarez’ fourth season, and while it seems these two paths diverged in their third years, Gordon’s 2009 slump might bring the two players back together again. The Royals’ phenom hit .232/.324/.378 in 49 games, suffered some injuries, and also spent 3o games terrorizing the minor leagues (.313/.435/.493). The Royals might have started to wonder if the “Quad-A” label could apply to Gordon – someone who could crush minor league pitching but couldn’t hit in the major leagues. The Pirates might be wondering the same thing about Alvarez, though he hasn’t dominated the minor leagues like Gordon did. This is the crux of the question and the problem that Huntington is faced with – compared to a player like Gordon, Alvarez really hasn’t torn up the minor leagues, but he might need to figure out his swing against major league pitchers.

Gordon’s story ultimately had a happy ending, but it took some patience. In 2010, his struggles continued – .310/.451/.567 in 75 minor league games but .215/.315/.355 in 74 games for the Royals. He finally put it together in 2011, hitting .303/.376/.502 in 151 games in the major leagues and becoming the star the Royals hoped they were getting with the second overall pick.

Gordon’s 2008 season showed that he could sustain some level success at the major league level for a full year; Alvarez has yet to reach that milestone. If you are willing to accept Alvarez’ strong half-season with the 2009 Pirates as his achievement of that milestone, then you should know that Gordon had 1642 plate appearances in the majors prior to his 2011 season. Alvarez has only managed 648 plate appearances in the majors, so if he is going to follow Gordon’s path, he might need to struggle for the 2012 and 2013 seasons before he puts it all together.  If Alvarez does break out in 2014, the timing might work out well for him to join Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole on the All-Star team.

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March 20, 2012

Rotation Depth

By John Franco

One of the unheralded benefits of the AJ Burnett trade was supposed to be the infusion of some much-needed depth into a Pirates rotation surrounded by questions. Erik Bedard hasn’t topped 130 innings since 2007. Charlie Morton is coming off hip surgery. Kevin Correia was an all-star in the first half of 2011 before his second half was eaten by the Regression Monster. Jeff Karstens and James McDonald each set career highs in innings pitched in 2011 (162 and 171, respectively) and faded down the stretch. The addition of Burnett gave the Pirates six proven starters, which would likely have sent Correia to the bullpen or given Morton more time to recover from his surgery.

Unfortunately, things didn’t go according to plan, as Burnett took a bunt to the face and won’t pitch until May. This leaves the Pirates in the same situation they faced last season, where their best pitching prospects are too far away to help and they are forced to rely on lesser alternatives. Brad Lincoln started eight games last season, and Ross Ohlendorf started nine. Lincoln posted a respectable 4.72 ERA that reflects his skills (5.5 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9) while Ohlendorf posted an ugly 8.15 ERA after giving up way too many hits and home runs.

For the 2012 season, Ohlendorf is trying to make the Red Sox’ AAA team, and Lincoln is back as the Pirates’ first option after their top six starters. In addition to his work in the majors, Lincoln posted respectable numbers at Triple-A (4.19 ERA, 7.6 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9) but he has now accumulated 267 innings there without establishing any kind of dominance. He makes a fine insurance policy for as long as he’s willing to spend most of his time in Indianapolis, but at age 26, he isn’t going to be anything more than that.

The Pirates also gave four starts to Jeff Locke last year, and he will probably be their second option this year. Locke posted solid numbers at Double-A (4.03 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 3.3 BB/9) and Triple-A (2.22 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 2.2 BB/9) and he is only 23. The Pirates may wish they had pushed Locke through the minors more quickly if they need another starter this season; he could have overtaken Lincoln as their primary insurance policy, instead of adding to his 28 innings of Triple-A experience.

Aside from Locke and Lincoln, the Pirates also have Jo-Jo Reyes in camp this spring. Reyes posted a 5.57 ERA in 140 innings last season, spending time with the Orioles and the Blue Jays. His peripheral numbers (5.6 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9) don’t offer a lot of hope, and his average fastball velocity was under 90 MPH last season. Other than offering Lincoln the opportunity to spend some unnecessary time at Indianapolis or serving as insurance in case of multiple injuries, Reyes doesn’t bring much to the table.

The rest of the Pirates’ minor leaguers are getting closer to their own auditions, but none are likely to be ready before the second half. Rudy Owens’ first taste of Triple-A did not go well, as his K/9 dropped to 5.7 and his ERA rose to 5.05; compare those numbers to 7.9 and 2.46 at Double-A. Owens won the organization’s minor league pitcher of the year award in 2010 and 2011, but at this point it’s fair to question whether his stuff will translate to the major leagues.

Kyle McPherson posted a 3.02 ERA in 89 innings at Double-A last year and is probably the closest to the majors after Locke and Owens. He posted a K/9 of 8.3 and accompanies a plus fastball and good command, but his secondary pitches have been slow to develop and might relegate him to the bullpen. McPherson will likely start the year back at Double-A, but he should reach Indianapolis or even PNC Park this year.

After McPherson and Owens, the Pirates have Colton Cain, who will likely start the year at High-A Bradenton and could move quickly, and Jameson Taillon, who will also start at High-A and won’t move quickly. Gerrit Cole is the wild card in the group – he pitched in the Arizona Fall League, and will also start the year at Bradenton. Since he pitched in a big-time college program, he could move quickly and have a cup of coffee in September, or he could spend the year working on his command and finish at Double-A. For the 2012 season, help is unlikely to come from this trio.

If the Pirates need an insurance policy this season, they will have several choices. Another year of Brad Lincoln wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, but it also wouldn’t move them closer to contention, and Jeff Locke certainly offers more upside. The good news is that the Pirates’ cadre of pitching prospects is moving closer to the major leagues, and their options for insurance should improve significantly by the time their 2013 season is underway.

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March 15, 2012

A decade of fandom

By John Franco

The Pirates’ extension of Andrew McCutchen through 2018 (if they exercise their team option for the 7th year) makes this is a pretty good time to be a Pirate fan. After the team signed Jose Tabata to a very team-friendly contract and drafted Gerrit Cole and Josh Bell last season, the rest of the decade is shaping up nicely. But how do the Pirates compare to the rest of the league?

How do you define fandom? What makes a team enjoyable to root for? To answer this question I have compiled a ranking of each team’s present and future expectations. For the rest of the decade, which team would be the most enjoyable team to root for? There are a number of factors that go into a team’s ranking; here is a brief description of each.

Stadium experience - Going to the ballpark is a key experience for any fan. Aside from the product on the field, a great atmosphere, a beautiful stadium, reasonable ticket prices, delicious local food or interesting promotions can really drive home the fan experience. ESPN published a list of stadium experience rankings in 2011, which are included in these rankings. The Pirates rank ninth on this list after ranking first in ESPN’s previous (and admittedly dated) rankings. With the possible exception of Tampa Bay and Oakland, few teams will see significant changes in their ballpark experience for the rest of the decade, so these rankings should suffice.

2012 season: While these rankings are intended to describe the rest of the decade, a team’s expectations for the upcoming season should still be considered. Nobody wants to start off on the wrong foot, teams rarely improve 15+ games in a season, and momentum counts, so these rankings include team’s projected win total in the forum of their over/under from the Las Vegas Hilton. The Pirates’ over/under is 73, which means that fans can bet on whether the Pirates’ win total will be over or under that number.

Farm system: One of the most important factors in a team’s future success is the strength of its farm system. Talented prospects can become key contributors to the major league team, or serve as trade bait for a quick fix. These rankings include Fangraphs‘ farm system rankings as well as Kevin Goldstein’s organizational rankings for Baseball Prospectus, which both measure a team’s collection of prospects from a slightly different perspective.

Broadcasters: If you can’t go to the ballpark, you’ll need to watch your team on TV (or on the internet, or the radio, or your mobile phone, or perhaps you can follow the action via smoke signals). These rankings include Fangraphs’ crowdsourced broadcaster rankings as a proxy for this experience. One caveat: the Fangraphs audience is skewed in favor of sabermetrics, so their rankings might not be reflective of the average fan.

Jersey factor: I created this ranking to answer the question “how excited am I to buy a player’s replica jersey from this team?” Teams are scored highest for signing popular, marketable players to long-term deals (Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Matt Kemp, and of course Andrew McCutchen) as well as having exciting young players under team control for several years (Brett Lawrie, Stephen Strasburg, Mike Trout). Teams without a marketable star will not score well on this metric (Yonder Alonso jerseys, anyone?) and popular players with soon-to-be-expiring contracts also fare poorly (Josh Hamilton, Joey Votto). My Yankee bias might show here in the fact that I gave positive scores for players who might retire with their current team (nobody will mind wearing a Mariano Rivera jersey in 2014).

Ownership: Having a great stadium, a blossoming farm system or a clubhouse full of marketable superstars is great, but without an ownership group to keep the team together, success will be fleeting. At the same time, an owner who is willing to throw money around can paper over a lot of holes. I created this ranking to measure a team’s willingness to invest in their teams, either in free agency, extensions for current players or the amateur and international markets. Some teams haven’t had a lot of chances to invest in these areas, so their scores are fairly generic, but there is enough differentiation to create some distinct tiers in this category.

Combining these six factors gives each team a combined ranking. I’ve included each team’s raw score, but in hopes of making the numbers more meaningful, teams are listed in tiers.

Tier 1: They’ve got it all

1. Texas Rangers 1017.5

2. Boston Red Sox 977.0

The Rangers sit atop the rankings thanks to a balanced attack: a top-5 farm system, a strong ownership team and a strong projection for 2012. Their stadium and jersey rankings are more mid-park (Yu Darvish, anyone?) but both are still solidly in the upper half of major league teams. The Red Sox have almost the same story with a slightly weaker farm system.

Tier 2: Missing one big piece

3. Los Angeles Angels 933.5

4. Washington Nationals 916.5

5. New York Yankees 912.5

6. Toronto Blue Jays 912.0

The Angels opened their checkbook this off-season to earn one of two perfect jersey scores, and have an outstanding stadium experience. Unfortunately, their farm system is about to become a wasteland with the graduation of Mike Trout. The Nationals are the other team with a perfect jersey score, and will still have Anthony Rendon in their farm system after graduating their own superstar in Bryce Harper. Their ownership has also spent money freely, helping them to overcome a modest 2012 projection.

The Yankees are no stranger to spending money – it’s hard to fault Hal Steinbrenner when he says he only wants to spend $189 million on payroll – but the antiseptic experience in their new $1.5 billion stadium hurts their overall score, and their mid-level farm system doesn’t help. The Blue Jays are also hampered by their stadium experience (along with their 2012 projection), but their farm system is ranked second by both sources, and they’ll have Jose Bautista and Brett Lawrie under team control for several seasons.

Tier 3: Better days ahead

7. St. Louis Cardinals 883.5

8. Pittsburgh Pirates 859.0

9. Kansas City Royals 842.5

10. Arizona Diamondbacks 835.0

The Cardinals lost Albert Pujols, hurting their jersey score and the opportunity for a top-shelf ownership score, but they still have an excellent farm system and a great stadium experience. Their over/under is only 82.5, so if you think the over sounds good then you might bump them up to Tier 2 in these rankings.

The Pirates boast a very high jersey score thanks to McCutchen, local hero Neil Walker, Jose Tabata‘s long-term contract and even Gerrit Cole for the optimists. Their stadium and farm system both rate well, and I gave them a slightly above average ownership score based on the Nuttings’ willingness to open their checkbooks for McCutchen and Cole. Their weakest scores are their 2012 win total (I doubt that’s news to anyone) and their broadcasters.

The Royals are in a similar situation to the Pirates. Their farm system is strong, their stadium experience is very good, their 2012 projection is below .500 (80.5 for the Royals) and their broadcasters are below average. Their jersey rating isn’t as dominant, but Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon, and Mike Moustakas still put them well above average. The Diamondbacks fit pretty well into this category despite their 86-win projection: Justin Upton stands in for McCutchen and Hosmer, the farm system remains strong and a better 2012 projection replaces a top-tier stadium ranking.

Tier 4: Selling jerseys despite some weaknesses

11. Seattle Mariners 814.0

12. Detroit Tigers 807.5

13. Tampa Bay Rays 790.0

14. Philadelphia Phillies 788.5

15. Colorado Rockies 785.5

16. Atlanta Braves 780.5

The Mariners are an interesting team, ranking slightly above average in almost every category. Kevin Goldstein’s farm ranking places them 7th, and their stadium (13th), Fangraphs farm rank (14th), broadcasters (13th), and 2012 win total (72) help their rankings. Their jersey outlook is strong with Ichiro Suzuki and Felix Hernandez joined by youngsters Jesus Montero and Dustin Ackley.

The Tigers don’t have much of a farm system, but they have an owner willing to spend the kind of cash needed to sign Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera. Their stadium and TV experiences are good and their 2012 projection is obviously strong, so any improvement on the farm would move them up significantly. The Rays have a solid farm (Fangraphs likes it more than Baseball Prospectus) and a great nucleus of young players under team control at ridiculous prices, but their stadium experience is universally regarded as awful. Their ownership is unable (or unwilling) to commit to spending serious money, which hurts their ranking.

The Phillies are going to be a great team to root for in 2012, but their veteran core is aging and there isn’t  much on the farm to replace them. Their stadium experience ranks third, and how high they rank on this list depends on how much future value you’re willing to sacrifice for one or two more great years. The Rockies also have a great stadium (ranked fourth) and will have Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez under contract for the rest of the decade. Their farm system ranks mid-pack, and they will be faced with the challenge of surrounding Tulo and CarGo with more talent than they had during Todd Helton‘s prime.

The Braves’ stadium and broadcasters don’t give their fans a great experience, but they have a strong farm system. It’s hard to rate their ownership rating (the team seems limited in their ability to spend, particularly on the amateur draft, but their farm system doesn’t suffer because their scouts keep finding gems) and it’s even harder to rate their jersey score (Chipper Jones is in his last days, and I’m not sure Jason Heyward or Tommy Hanson) are ready to assume the mantle. So 16th place seems about right.

Tier 5: The cracks are showing

17. Miami Marlins 747.5

18. San Francisco Giants 729.5

19. San Diego Padres 702.5

20. Cincinnati Reds 679.5

21. Milwaukee Brewers 657.0

With the exception of the Padres, this is a list of competitive teams. The Marlins are suddenly willing to spend money, and their ballpark experience will certainly be better than their old stadium. I made an adjustment to their stadium experience (they were 29th based on their old park) and rated them mid-pack until we see just how annoying their home run celebration will be. They will sell a lot of Jose Reyes jerseys, and having Reyes and Hanley Ramirez under contract boosts their jersey factor and makes up for the fact that their farm system is in a state of disrepair.

The Giants have the best stadium experience (and maybe the best garlic fries… perhaps that’s not a coincidence?) and I gave them a strong rating for their ownership. The ownership rating is a tricky one – as a fan – you might admire their refusal to let the A’s move to San Jose, and you might admire their willingness to pay for AT&T Park with private financing, but a neutral observer might be less impressed by that approach. Buster Posey might be the only long-term jersey investment for the Giants, with Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum both careening towards free agency.

The Padres have a consensus #1 farm system, but their ownership situation is unsettled. Their mid-pack ballpark environment and win total should improve as their prospects reach the majors. They have the worst jersey score of any team – if I had to pick a current player, I guess it would be Cameron Maybin, but if I had to guess the best selling jersey this year I would probably bet on Tony Gwynn.

The Reds and Brewers share space in the competitive half of the NL Central, with similar 2012 projections. The Brewers have a great stadium experience and a terrible farm; the Reds are mediocre in both areas. Ryan Braun‘s lengthy contract extension gives Milwaukee the edge in jersey factor; Jay Bruce is locked up for the long term, but Joey Votto is not. Pirate fans will notice that both teams are significantly behind the Cardinals and the Pirates.

Tier 6: “At least we’re not…”

22. Los Angeles Dodgers 586.0

23. Oakland Athletics 572.0

24. Baltimore Orioles 541.0

25. Minnesota Twins 539.0

26. Chicago Cubs 515.5

27. Cleveland Indians 506.5

The Dodgers benefit a little too much from Vin Scully and their #1 broadcaster ranking: despite my wishes to the contrary, Vin probably won’t be with them for the rest of the decade. Of course, the Dodgers will have Matt Kemp for the whole decade, and hopefully their new owners will also lock up Clayton Kershaw. Their current ownership score is very low, but could improve once the team is sold. In addition to Kershaw, the new owners will also need to address a middling farm system and a poor stadium experience.

The A’s have a good farm system. That’s about all they have, but their collection of young talent should make the second half of the decade enjoyable, especially if they finally get a new ballpark. Their stadium experience ranks as the worst in baseball, and based on personal experience, I can’t disagree. The flip side of the A’s situation is the Orioles, who have a nice stadium and a couple of gems on the farm (Dylan Bundy and Manny Machado). Baltimore also outscores Oakland in terms of jerseys, with Matt Wieters joining Adam Jones and Nick Markakis as the favorites.

The Twins offer the second-best stadium experience, but the product on the field is lacking (over/under of 75) and not likely to improve (farm ranks of 15th and 22nd place). They have hometown hero Joe Mauer locked up for the long term, but it’s hard to say how well he’ll play or how much of an albatross his contract will be.  At least they’ve got their outdoor ballpark.

Most Cubs fans believe that Theo Epstein will lead them back to the promised land, but the question is, how soon will it happen? Starlin Castro is the only jersey worth buying (Geovanny Soto? Ernie Banks?) and the farm system is pretty bare. Alfonso Soriano‘s contract will expire eventually, and ownership has been willing to spend money in the past, so if Epstein can spend their money wisely when the time comes, things could improve quickly.

There was a time when the Indians could have topped this list, but the 90s were a long time ago. Jim Thome is long gone, Grady Sizemore is a shell of his former self and their best player shares his name with a famous guitarist. The Indians do have some youthful upside in the aforementioned Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis and redemption candidate Ubaldo Jimenez. Las Vegas likes them, posting an inexplicable 86.5 wins for their over/under, but players like Josh Tomlin and Justin Masterson are not likely to keep things exciting in Cleveland for the next decade. The farm system is also hurting – Francisco Lindor is their only noteworthy prospect, and he just turned 18. The Indians might stick above .500 for the next couple years, but seem unlikely to go beyond that before settling in for a few rough seasons.

Tier 7: It’s going to be a long decade

28. Houston Astros 370.0

29. New York Mets 365.0

30. Chicago White Sox 274.0

The Astros are finally on the right track, but the hole they dug themselves is so deep that it might take the rest of the decade to dig out. They have a new owner, a new GM and a saber-friendly front office, but Jose Altuve is their only real jersey candidate and their farm system still ranks in the bottom five. Even their stadium experience ranks in the bottom ten, but it is still a nice stadium that could improve quickly with a winning team.

The Mets are a special case. Their ownership situation is a mess that doesn’t seem like it will be resolved any time soon; I gave them a zero for their ownership score and I’m not sure was low enough. I’m not sure which Mets’ player I would want a jersey for – David Wright is a free agent at the end of the season, Ike Davis can’t stay healthy and Johan Santana hasn’t pitched since 2010. On the other hand, the Mets do have a decent farm system (ranked 16th and 17th), and their broadcasting team ranks second behind Vin Scully. Things could certainly improve by the end of the decade, but the ownership situation makes things feel pretty hopeless right now.

The White Sox’ ranking is bad enough that I could probably put them in their own tier, but that seems unnecessarily cruel. Their best jersey candidates are Paul Konerko and Alexei Ramirez. Their farm system is the worst in baseball (and it’s not close). Their ownership doesn’t spend money on amateur talent and their GM likes to collect bad contracts. Their stadium experience isn’t very good, and even their broadcasters ranked last. With an over/under of 74, things are not good now, nor are they likely to improve. The Astros have their front office, and the Mets have their farm system, but the White Sox really don’t have anything to hang their hat on. Worst of all, the Cubs seem to be moving past them in the battle for Chicago mediocrity.

These ratings might make you feel good (or bad) about your favorite team, but remember that a lot can change in a decade. Almost every team has some reason to look forward to the next few years, and no team is perfect across the board. There should be plenty of competition for the title of “team of the decade” and it will be fun to revisit these ratings in 2021. Unless the Mayans were right, in which case I totally should have ranked the Phillies higher.

These ratings also show how the Pirates could improve, but for them it mostly comes down to winning: PNC Park is the best ballpark in the country, and a winning team would give them an environment worthy of their stadium. Winning would also give the Nuttings more money to spend (in theory) and also make it easier to attract big-name free agents as needed.

If you want to look at the raw numbers behind these rankings, I’ve shared them in a Google Spreadsheet. Maybe you disagree with some of my scores, or the weightings I used to create the rankings, or maybe you feel like your team got a raw deal and you’re not sure why. I would encourage you to take a look; maybe it will give you a different perspective on what you want from your team for the next nine seasons.

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Filed under General, John Franco Posts, Pirates Fans

March 9, 2012

Platoon Options

By John Franco

Heading into the 2012 season, GM Neal Huntington has provided Clint Hurdle with some interesting options for building his lineup. When every team is looking for an inefficiency to exploit (and every GM is wondering which dreamy actor would portray them in a movie if they succeed), the Pirates can explore some strong platoon differentials to create some advantages of their own.

In order to exploit these advantages, the Pirates will have to do a bit of wishcasting, but isn’t that what Hollywood magic is for? The following players have no place in a major league lineup (based on their 2011 triple-slash lines):

Player 1: .147/.181/.279

Player 2: .158/.256/.289

Player 1 represents Garrett Jones’ line against left handed pitching, and player 2 represents Pedro Alvarez‘ line against southpaws. Now, Alvarez only managed to hit .198/.275/.289 against righties in 2011, so he probably shouldn’t have been in the lineup against anyone, but he had an OPS of .858 against righties compared to a .644 OPS against lefties in 2010. Jones hit a solid .262/.346/.462 against righties in 2011, a line that might have won his arbitration case if he didn’t hit like Zach Duke against lefties.

So, what’s the solution? Savior number one posted a staggering .947 OPS against lefties in 2010, compared to a .750 line against righties. Casey McGehee, come on down! McGehee somehow posted a backwards split in 2011, hitting only .169 against lefties compared to .239 against righties, but he has shown the potential to mash lefties, and if the Pirates allow him to focus on that specialty, his numbers could return to their 2010 levels.

Savior number two has a career line of .295/.360/.489 in 176 career at-bats against lefties. Of course, the Pirates were able to sign Nick Evans to a minor league contract .224/.257/.338 line against righties, and they might not have a spot for him on the 25-man roster. But it’s fun to imagine him in a platoon with Jones where each hitter keeps the other away from the pitchers they can’t handle.

Of course, the Pirates probably don’t have a place on their roster for Evans at the moment. A typical 25-man roster has 13 hitters; 8 starters, a backup catcher, a fourth outfielder, and a backup shortstop take 11 of the spots, with the remaining two usually going to a second/third baseman and fifth outfielder. Nate McLouth, Yamaico Navarro, Michael McKenry and McGehee will have four of the five spots, with Josh Harrison on the inside track for the final spot.

Even though Harrison is a righty, he hit .293 against righties and .226 against lefties last year. Harrison also hit .309 against righties and .290 against lefties at Double-A in 2010, but the Pirates would probably settle for a .290 average in a platoon with Alvarez.

Since Evans can play first base and the corner outfield spots, he could be the Pirates’ first call-up for almost any injury, allowing the Pirates to set up their ideal platoons after all. Of course, Starling Marte could keep hitting .800 in spring training and change Clint Hurdle’s plans.

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Filed under First Base, Hitters, Infield, John Franco Posts, Third Base

March 6, 2012

The Andrew McCutchen Extension

The extension that Pirates fans were waiting for with bated breath has finally happened as franchise cornerstone Andrew McCutchen was inked to a 6 year, $51 million dollar deal plus a club option for a 7th year.  The deal for the 2005 11th overall pick is almost identical to fellow 2005 draftees Justin Upton (1st overall) and Jay Bruce (12th overall).  To date Cutch has been worth 12.4 WAR according to Baseball-Reference with an .822 OPS while Upton is at 11.5/.845 and Bruce is at 6.3/.805.

This is a great deal for the Pirates from all aspects, especially with the club option tacked on at the end which wasn’t included in Upton’s deal, but does follow suit in Bruce’s deal.  McCutchen has established himself as one of the premier centerfielders in all of baseball.  His batting average dipped a bit last year, but his on-base percentage held firm thanks to an increase in walks.  Meanwhile, he set a career high in home runs at 23 and his .820 OPS actually gave him a career high in OPS+ at 127 as the offensive environment across baseball is lower than when his rookie season .836 OPS  gave him a 121 OPS+ in 2009.

The deal gives the Pirates two young outfielders with long-terms deals as Jose Tabata was inked to a 6 year deal back in August with three options spanning from 2017-2019.  The Pirates have a chance to develop some serious depth in the outfield as both Starling Marte or Robbie Grossman, two of the team’s top hitting prospects, are set to contribute in the very near future (perhaps as early as sometime in 2012 for Marte) while the team’s best hitting prospect, Josh Bell, has an incredible ceiling as a middle-of-the-lineup hitter and should be set for the big leagues around 2015 and maybe even at some point in 2014 depending how quickly the Texas high schooler develops.  Marte’s brilliant defense could eventually push McCutchen to left.  Cutch’s bat would have no problem playing in left field where the National League average was .259/.328/.420 last year.

I continue to be pleased with the offseason that Neal Huntington and the Pirates are having from their major moves like this contract, the A.J. Burnett trade (his fluke injury notwithstanding) and the Erik Bedard signing to the smaller moves like the Clint Barmes signing and the Yamaico Navarro trade.

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Filed under Contract Extensions, Hitters, Outfield, Paul Sporer Posts, Personnel, Signings, Transactions

February 13, 2012

Soooo….. AJ Burnett?

By John Franco

As you might remember from my bio, I root for the Yankees as well as the Pirates. So I’m very familiar with the roller coaster that is AJ Burnett - few pitchers have managed to be as good (the 2009 World Series) and as bad (most of the 2011 season) as AJ in such a short period of time. Now that the Pirates are rumored to be pursuing Burnett, it’s fair to question what they might get for their troubles.

Burnett has two years remaining on his contract, and the Yankees are reportedly willing to eat most of his salary if it helps them to trade him. He is owed a staggering $33 million for 2012 and 2013, a number that represents a significant chunk of the Pirates’ payroll and also the loose change you might find in the Steinbrenners’ couch. If the Yankees picked up $24 million, the Pirates would be paying Burnett about $5 million per year. For a team that was willing to spend $10 million a year on Edwin Jackson, that doesn’t sound too bad.

In between trips to the bank to drop off large sacks of cash, Burnett posted a record of 11-11 with a 5.15 ERA for the Yankees last year. He worked 190 innings and allowed 190 hits, posting a K/9 of 8.2 and a BB/9 of 3.9. Burnett did this while pitching in the unfriendly confines of New Yankee Stadium and the American League East. His park-adjusted ERA+ was 86, meaning he was 14% worse than the average pitcher in the American League. By comparison, Chris Resop posted an ERA+ of 87 for the Pirates based on an ERA of 4.39, providing a rough estimate for what Burnett’s ERA could be if he was based in PNC Park.

If the Pirates could get 190 innings of 4.39 ERA from Burnett for about $5 million a year, I think they’d be ecstatic. That mark would have ranked him fifth among Pirate starters in 2011, but Charlie Morton is facing a tough recovery from hip surgery and Jeff Karstens is staring down a date with the Regression Monster. There are other factors that could move Burnett’s performance up or down, but the potential for a serviceable innings eater at a reasonable price is a good place to start.

Last season, the biggest challenge Burnett faced on the mound was the home run ball. He allowed 31 home runs for a HR/9 of 1.47, and 17% of all the fly balls hit against him cleared the fence. Burnett did allow similar home run numbers at home and on the road (16.8% at home and 17.4% on the road) so leaving Yankee Stadium won’t suddenly turn him into a deadball pitcher, but the pitcher-friendly environment in PNC Park certainly won’t hurt.

[Burnett allowed 12 home runs on the road last year, and 3 of them were in a single game at Tampa. Tropicana Field is usually a tough place to hit home runs, but the dangers of small sample sizes are particularly relevant when Burnett is involved. Sometimes, he just pitches horribly. Pirate fans will learn to love the phrase "AJ being AJ."]

Burnett also underwent some other changes in 2011, continuing trends of declining fastball velocity, increased groundball rate, worsening HR/FB% and increased reliance on his changeup. He also threw more curveballs in 2011, and reversed a three-year decline in swing-and-miss pitches. His advanced metrics are definitely a mixed bag of generally negative trends with some curious notes of positivity. AJ is definitely aging, but he might have some ideas on how to handle it.

For the Pirates, the opportunity cost of adding Burnett is low. Morton, Erik Bedard, James McDonald, Kevin Correia and Jeff Karstens make up the current rotation, and all come with question marks. Brad Lincoln or Jeff Locke would ostensibly be the sixth starter, and both are low-upside insurance policies that would look just as good behind Burnett. The next wave of prospects like Colton Cain and Kyle McPherson would benefit from a bit more seasoning in the minors.

The Yankees are reportedly interested in Garrett Jones as part of a Burnett trade, and while that shouldn’t be a showstopper, it does require the Pirates to step back and look at what they hope to get from Burnett. If they hope Burnett can turn them into a contender, they’ll probably need Jones’ bat in their lineup. If they are just looking to flip Burnett in a trade if he pitches well, it’s reasonable that his flip value might be higher than Jones.

If the Pirates are looking for a way to stabilize their rotation after failing in their attempt to sign Jackson, a trade for Burnett might be easier than trying to recruit a free agent. Burnett is durable, should come at a reasonable price and would only drive the Pirates nuts some of the time. When Good AJ shows up in front of a packed house at PNC Park, all will be forgiven.

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Filed under John Franco Posts, Starting Rotation, Trades

February 1, 2012

Pirates Earn Solid Marks in SI Power Rankings

As we turn the calendar over to February, the free agent pool is drying up rapidly and Spring Training is right around the corner.  The Super Bowl this Sunday will close out the NFL season and those who consider themselves dual-sport fans will shift their focus back to baseball.  Magazines are already starting to pop up on racks and preseason power polls are popping up on websites.  Sports Illustrated’s Joe Lemire has ranked the teams 1-30 in light of the offseason action we have seen since November.

The top of list doesn’t offer many surprises with the Texas Rangers and New York Yankees leading the American League at 1 & 2, while the Philadelphia Phillies and reigning World Series Champion St. Louis Cardinals head the National League checking in at 3 & 6.  A couple of the biggest players in the offseason were rewarded with top half ranks as the Los Angeles Angels bowed at 5 while the Miami Marlins took the 14 spot.  I was equally pleased and surprised to see the Pittsburgh Pirates check in at 20 on the heels of some quality under-the-radar signings as well as a well-graded prospect class from Baseball Prospectus’s Kevin Goldstein.

The Pirates beat out the Colorado Rockies, Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox as well as the bottom feeding Houston Astros who are in the early stages of a rebuild mode with their new GM Jeff Luhnow and the Oakland A’s who have committed to their rebuilding plan after trading stud starters Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez for prospects this offseason.  The 20 spot ranking marks a two spot increase from their season-ending ranking in the same poll and represents a similar two spot boost if you were to go purely off of record from 2011 when their 72-90 finish checked in 22nd-best in baseball.

As Lemire points out, the Pirates must get more offense for their pitchers if they are to meet or exceed his current ranking for the team, but the pieces are in place to do so.  Lemire also aptly points out that while Goldstein has tabbed six of Pittsburgh’s top prospects with five (4) or four (2) star designations, they are all at least a full year from contributing as Starling Marte‘s season at AA represents the high point anyone in the group has reached thus far.  Gerrit Cole and Josh Bell, both five star players, were drafted just last June.  Meanwhile, Jameson Taillon and Luis Heredia were drafted & signed as an international free agent in 2010.

The six player in the bunch, Robbie Grossman, repeated High-A in 2011 and excelled with minor league bests in walks (104) and runs scored (127).  He continued his success with an even better Arizona Fall League during which he hit .375/.472/.625 with seven home runs and 22 RBIs in 26 games before fracturing the hamate bone in his right hand.  He also had 20 walks (a league best) against just 18 strikeouts.   His 2011 breakout will be put to the test in 2012 with a Double-A assignment, though the injury suffered during the AFL could skew his results.  At age 22, the repeated season isn’t a massive setback, but a major drop-off in 2012 would be damaging to his rising stock.

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Filed under Farm System, General, Minor Leagues, Offseason, Paul Sporer Posts

December 15, 2011

Pirates Sign Nate McLouth

By Paul Sporer

It is easy for Pirates fans to get nostalgic about Nate McLouth.  The one-time Pirate was one of the few bright spots on the 95-loss team from 2008.  Jason Bay, Adam LaRoche, Ryan Doumit and Xavier Nady all played pretty well, too, but it was McLouth who played 152 games (a team high) hitting .276/.356/.497 with a league-high 46 doubles as well as 26 home runs and 23 stolen bases in 685 plate appearances.  He represented the team in the All-Star Game, won a Gold Gove and even garnered a down ballot MVP vote (finishing 27th out 27).

The Pirates had an in-his-prime centerpiece for their lineup.  Except that they also a generational superstar waiting in the wings at the same position in Andrew McCutchen.  So on June 3rd of 2009, the Pirates traded McLouth to the Atlanta Braves for Charlie Morton, Jeff Locke and Gorkys Hernandez.  You probably know how this story plays out.  McLouth was adequate in the remaining 84 games in 2009 before falling off of a cliff the last two years.

He has played just 85 and 81 games the last two years with Atlanta totaling a .210/.322/.328 line with 10 home runs and 11 stolen bases in 609 plate appearances.  He has been nothing like the McLouth that Pirates fans were sad to see go back in 2009 and as such the Braves declined his option meaning he was available for just $1.75 million dollars on a one-year deal.

In 2009, McLouth still registered an above average .350 wOBA.  It was down from his back-to-back seasons of .364 and .369, but hardly a bad year.  So seeing his 2010 wOBA at a ghastly .283 is a bit of a shock given that the skills profile from 2009 to 2010 wasn’t markedly different.

He had the exact same 11.5% walk rate, almost identical batted ball percentages with his groundballs, flyballs and line drives and while his strikeout rate rose 3% to 19.8%, it can’t be the sole reason he went from All-Star player to well below replacement.

His luck turned drastically as his BABIP dipped 6% from .281 to .221 and his home run per flyball rate fell 4% from 11.4% to 7.5% which I guess in a small sample of just 288 plate appearances can have the colossal effect that it did taking him from a 3.4 fWAR player to -1.2.

This past season saw drastic changes in his batted ball distribution including a 7% rise in groundball rate as well as a 9% drop in flyball rate (but a 10% jump in infield flyball rate).  He simply wasn’t making as much quality contact as he had in the past.  So even a career-best 14% walk rate and an improved 16% strikeout rate couldn’t yield much more than replacement level results (.306 wOBA, 0.2 fWAR).

Now 30, McLouth returns to his original organization in hopes of getting his career back on track as the Pirates fourth outfielder/first bat off the bench.  Of course nothing is guaranteed with Alex Presley, either, who has just 256 plate appearances under his belt heading into his age 26 season.  The cost is right for a move like this.  The team knows what McLouth can do at his best and taking a shot that he can return to those levels, or close to at least, for under $2 million dollars is just fine.

I don’t love the move, but I certainly don’t hate it, either.  The only way I would hate it is if McLouth ends up blocking a younger, more deserving player.  Say for example Presley.  But it appears the opening day outfield will feature McCutchen, Presley and Jose Tabata and that is how it should be for now.

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Filed under Free Agents, Front Office, Hitters, Offseason, Outfield, Paul Sporer Posts, Personnel, Signings, Transactions

December 13, 2011

Pirates Get Two in Rule 5 Draft

By Paul Sporer

The Rule 5 Draft at the end of every year’s winter meetings has lot a bit of its intrigue in the last five years after the 2006 CBA made it so teams could protect players from exposure in the draft an extra year thus diluting the pool of talent.   That very first draft in December of 2006 featured Joakim Soria and Josh Hamilton (and even Jesus Flores to a lesser degree) as teams got used to the new rules, but it was clear that when it came to finding diamonds in the rough, the rough had grown much larger.

Since 2007 the Rule 5 Draft has been littered with middle relievers who have given teams some decent enough innings, but nothing they couldn’t find in their minor leagues had they tried out a few of their own guys.  The Pirates plucked Evan Meek from the Tampa Bay Rays in 2007 and he went on to become an All-Star three years later, but his numbers haven’t been particularly special on the whole or even in that year (7.9 K/9, 2.3 K/BB in 80 IP).  He is definitely a “success” story in the new era of the Rule 5 Draft, but not nearly to the caliber of previous success (including Pirates Hall of Famer Roberto Clemente).

Perhaps the best pick since 2007 was by the San Diego Padres who took Ivan Nova from the New York Yankees, but ended up returning him.  He would have had to make a jump from High-A to the majors and considering the fact that he wasn’t even that good with the Yankees this year (I don’t care that he won 16 games), he probably would have struggled mightily as a major leaguer in 2009.

The Pirates were active in this year’s Rule 5 Draft both in the major league phase and the minor league phase nabbing Gustavo Nunez from the Detroit Tigers in the MLB portion and once-heralded prospect Aaron Poreda from the San Diego Padres who was a key return in the Jake Peavy trade with the Chicago White Sox.

Nunez, rated as Detroit’s 23rd-best prospect prior to 2011, is a glove-first (only?) speedster who broke out (relative to his history) with the bat a bit in 2009 hitting .309/.356/.421 in 538 plate appearances and stole 48 bases (but was also caught 25 times for a poor 66% success rate).  He was exposed badly a year later in High-A posting a rough .544 OPS in 572 plate appearances, but did go 33-for-41 (81%) on the base paths while continuing to play sparkling defense.

At 23 years old, he repeated High-A and while that’s never good, at least he mashed through it the second time around hitting .304/.368/.431 in 294 plate appearances.  Unfortunately he was a baserunning liability again going 14-for-24 (58%).  A promotion to AA once again showed the flaws in his game as he dropped a .215/.252/.289 line in 131 plate appearances (4-for-7 in stolen bases).

He might have some value as a pinch-runner/defensive replacement, but Clint Barmes and Yamaico Navarro easily outclass him with the bat while Barmes matches him with the glove and Navarro is comparable enough that the offensive production gives him a wide edge and renders Nunez useless.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets returned to the Tigers.

Poreda has been an unmitigated disaster with the Padres organization since being traded in 2009, the season he started off as the 63rd ranked prospect in all of baseball according to Baseball America.  He has lost any and all semblance of the strike zone, something that seemed to be a particular trait of his when he first started as a professional as evidenced by his 2.2 BB/9 rate in 207 innings from 2007 to 2008.

Since then has an 7.9 BB/9 (!!!) rate in 231 innings from 2009 through last season including MORE than a walk per inning the last two seasons (127 BB in 124 IP).  Steve Blass thinks that is terrible.  The only silver lining is that he also had a 10.2 K/9 in 70 innings last year, but that was likely because hitters were just as unsure of where the ball was going as Poreda was and they swung at the ball to keep it from hitting them in the face.

For him to only have a 5.43 ERA despite putting on nearly two batters per inning (1.83 WHIP) is a modern miracle.  He has already moved into the bullpen and this isn’t just an issue with control, it’s a complete meltdown so his upside has definitely dwindled, but he is both left-handed and a once-regarded prospect so his leash will be longer than usual.

Since he was taken in the minor league phase of the draft, he was cheaper ($12,000 compared to $50,000 for Nunez) and he isn’t taking up a spot on the major league roster so there is time for the Pirates organization to work with him and see if they can iron out his issues and salvage perhaps a late-inning/high-leverage lefty reliever.

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December 13, 2011

Pirates Trade for Yamaico Navarro

By Paul Sporer

As the Rule 5 Draft drew closer, the Kansas City Royals knew they wanted to participate which meant they had to clear a roster spot.  In case you are unaware, a Rule 5 Draftee must stay on a team’s 25-man major league roster all year or he has to be offered back to the original team.  So the Royals found a trade partner in the Pittsburgh Pirates dealing Yamaico Navarro off of their 25-man roster for a pair of minor leaguers: Brooks Pounders and Diego Goris.

Pounders is a 2009 2nd round pick who projects as a right-handed reliever and potential emergency spot starter (nine starts in his 61 minor league appearances).  The 20-year old had a breakout season in the Sally League this year dramatically raising his strikeout rate from 6.2 to 9.8 while also shaving his 3.2 walk rate down to 1.9 for a 5.1 K/BB ratio in 66 innings.

Despite the lofty strikeout mark, Pounders isn’t a hard thrower as he gets by with a high 80s-low 90s fastball that has more command than movement.  This is a situation where the numbers alone simply don’t tell a complete story as the 5.1 K/BB ratio would have most statheads drooling at the prospects of Pounders, but the stuff just isn’t there to match.  He also struggles with a flyball tendency that has left his home run rate per game over 1.0 each of the past two seasons (1.2 in 108 IP since 2010).

The bottom is that he is already a reliever for a reason and while he might reach the majors and have some effective innings, his skills aren’t something that can’t be replaced by a throngs of other right-handed arms littered throughout just about every organization in the league.

Goris is an unknown commodity, but likely even less of a prospect than Pounders.  He has spent the last four years in the Dominican Summer League showing incremental improvements as a utility player.  Primarily a shortstop (101 of 219 games played there), he has seen his OPS improve yearly in scant samples ranging from 44 to 68 games played.  He started at .567 as a 17-year old in 2008 followed by seasons of .681, .793 and last year’s .898 in a career-high 289 plate appearances.

Navarro started 2011 in the Boston Red Sox organization where Baseball America ranked him the 12th-best prospect for the second straight year (including 2010 when the Sox were ranked the 5th-best organization overall by BA).   He has spent five years working his way through the minor leagues after a year in the Dominican Summer League, posting solid numbers yearly except for his 2009 season that was cut short and derailed by a broken hand (career-low .702 OPS).

Though a limited sample of 75 games and 309 plate appearances, his .797 OPS at AAA is his best performance in any league since a .906 mark in High-A across parts of 2008 and 2009.  He has exemplary bat speed from which he draws his power and shows low-teens home run potential despite his 5’11/170 frame.  He has shown the ability to be patient for stretches as evidenced by his 9% walk rate over his entire career including 11% and 10% marks the last two years in the minors, respectively, but he will go through bouts of over-aggression which results more in strings of weak contact than egregious strikeout totals (career 16% strikeout rate).

I wrote about Navarro from a fantasy angle back in May at my other site, but the Red Sox didn’t get him up until July and traded at the end of the month for Mike Aviles, who is a pretty reasonable comp for what Navarro can become except Aviles didn’t get a shot until age 27 whereas Navarro is just 24 and already has a couple cups of coffee under his belt.  He has come up primarily as a shortstop with 312 of 470 minor league games played there, but he has experience at third base and second base as well as token appearances at all three outfield spots.

A bat with pop who can work his way around the diamond is a perfect player for the National League for obvious reasons, but also for this Pirates team as they can work him into the lineup based more on need without fear of him blocking someone else.  Navarro should have a legitimate shot at a roster spot in Spring Training and at worst be among the first up from Indianapolis should he miss out in March.  Given the Royals’ desire to free up their spot for Cesar Cabral, whom they took with the 5th pick of the draft from the Red Sox as it all comes back full circle to the Sox.

Another strong move by the front office this offseason.

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December 7, 2011

Pirates Sign Erik Bedard

By Paul Sporer

If you were up late last night you may have seen the rumored interest by the Pirates in starting pitcher Erik Bedard as reported by Nick Cafardo on Twitter.  Just over 13 hours later, Marc Brassard is reporting via his Twitter (aww ya, seven years of French classes in high school & college finally paying dividends!) that the two sides have reached a deal for $4.5 million dollars for the 32-year old lefty.  This is exactly the kind of signing the Pirates should seek out: reasonably priced, high upside assets.

Bedard was developing into a superstar pitcher a few years ago after a pair of excellent seasons in Baltimore during which he threw 378 innings with a 28-16 record, 3.47 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 and 3.1 K/BB at the ages of 27 and 28.  On the heels of his 2007 season in which he led the league in strikeout (10.9 K/9) and hit rates allowed (7.0 H/9), the Orioles flipped him to the Seattle Mariners for a load of young talent (the prize of which was Adam Jones), but he failed to live up to expectations in his two and a half seasons there throwing just 255 innings.  His 91 innings in 2011 prior to being traded to Boston were actually a career-high in Seattle (81 and 83 the two years before).

Though he struggled mightily with his health, Bedard remained a very good pitcher in the rare instances when he was on the mound carrying a 3.31 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8.8 K/9 and 2.5 K/BB as a Mariner.  Bedard checkered injury history drove down his price making him the perfect buy for the Pirates.  Using the FanGraphs dollar value indicator, he has been worth $4.6, $8.4 and $10.6 million dollars the last three years despite having not reached 130 innings in any of the three seasons.

Compare that lefty Paul Maholm who saw his $9.75 million dollar option declined this offseason to the displeasure of some (though the Bedard move tempered that displeasure).  Maholm has been worth $14.2, $8.0 and $9.2 million dollars the last three years while throwing an average of 181 innings (though his total has dipped yearly since 2008’s peak of 206).  Hindsight is 20/15 so it is easy to say that Bedard at $4.5 is better than Maholm at $9.75.  Picking up Maholm’s option wouldn’t have been awful, but I think it was wise to decline it and see how the market shakes out and if necessary go back and try to re-sign Maholm.

This deal now gives the Pirates their 1-2 punch of strikeout pitchers atop the rotation with Bedard and James McDonald in some form or fashion.  Then there is Charlie Morton, who had hip surgery back in October, but the Pirates are hopeful he will be ready by the time the season starts.  The Pirates are also still involved with Jeff Francis, another signing I would fully endorse.  Beyond that, the backend of the rotation is still unsettled.

My only fear with Bedard is that the Pirates don’t learn from the Astros and Brett Myers.  I thought it was a great move when the Astros signed the maligned righty on the heels of a down 2009 for just $3.1 million dollars.  He hadn’t done much in terms of results for the three years prior to signing, but the skills were still evident and worth the financial, one-year gamble.  If he pans out, flip him and if not, no harm.  He panned out in spades with a career year including a 3.35 ERA and 1.28 WHIP through mid-July with several interested suitors as the trade deadline neared.

Instead of acquiring pieces to help replenish their woefully depleted farm system, they balked at the many Myers offers and held onto him.  The day after the trade deadline they signed him to a two year, $23 million dollar contract with a $10 million dollar option in 2013 that could vest depending on 2012 performance.  In 2010, they got 224 innings with a 3.14 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 and 2.7 K/BB resulting in some down ballot Cy Young votes.  His 2011 results were worse (4.46 ERA, 1.31 WHIP), but the skills weren’t bad as evidenced by his 3.75 xFIP and 3.83 SIERA.  Both Houston teams were awful.  Myers was never going to be a part of the next good Houston Astros team so there was really no reason to sign him to that extension.  The initial risk paid off, but they didn’t properly parlay into help for their team down the road.

If Bedard excels as a Pirate and draws significant interest at the trade deadline, I hope the front office is smart enough to move him for some young talent that can help advance the overall progress of this team.  Even Bedard recaptures his 2006-2007 “durability”, he is still a long-term injury risk (click here if you’re unfamiliar with just how extensive his injury history is) and doesn’t provide any real value to the Pirates beyond 2012.  The only upside of Bedard staying healthy in the early part of 2012 will be that it drives up the price in July.

This is a great signing for the Pirates, but it’s part of a two-step process.  Obviously if Bedard fails to pitch enough or sees his skills fade considerably then step two can’t be enacted, but otherwise he has to be available for trade next summer.

By the way, I am aware of the other scenario whereby trading Bedard wouldn’t happen.  If the Pirates are somehow in contention again this summer, it will likely be due in large part to Bedard and trading him would be virtually impossible.  I’ll grant that, but I find it to be such an improbable scenario that I won’t bother delving too deeply into it (sorry for those who are overly optimistic about 2012, just being honest).  The team is moving in the right direction, but there are still more than a few steps away.  This past summer’s draft was a huge step, but it won’t pay off overnight.

There are still some more moves to be made and it will be interesting to see if they bring in Francis or Derrek Lee or better yet, both.

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December 6, 2011

Pirates Sign Nick Evans

By Paul Sporer

If the Rod Barajas and Clint Barmes didn’t do much for you, the signing of Nick Evans to a minor league contract likely won’t even hit your radar, but ESPN’s Mark Simon did a great job looking at Evans and why he just might be an undervalued asset.  Simon’s case for Evans has to do primarily with Evans’s strong first base defense.

But Evans did something within his limited time that was significant to those of us trying to learn about advanced defensive stats. It struck me as being the defensive equivalent to hitting .400 over 150-or-so at-bats. In 337 2/3 innings, the equivalent of 37 ½ nine-inning games at first base, Evans finished with seven defensive runs saved. That’s a good number for a first baseman. It tied him for most in the majors for the season with Angels first baseman Mark Trumbo.

While his leather could prove valuable, the question is whether or not he can provide enough with his bat to merit a spot in the lineup at such a hitting-focused position.  He has spent parts of the last four seasons in the majors though last year’s 194 plate appearances in 59 games were both career highs.  He has a .256/.305/.407 line in 419 plate appearances across his 159 career games suggesting that, no, he can’t offer enough at first base to warrant regular playing time.

His minor league pedigree doesn’t provide too much hope, either.  He showed promise in the lower minors posting a .298/.363/.532 line in 834 plate appearances at AA as a 22 and 23 year old, but dropped down to .274/.341/.465 in 695 plate appearances at AAA over the last three years from ages 23 to 25.  In order to sustain a glove-first player at first base, your lineup needs to be pretty thick everywhere else or at elite levels at some of the scarce positions like shortstop, catcher, centerfield and third base.

The Pirates lineup is obviously neither of those thus Evans is little more than a bench bat and defensive replacement late in games.  He could also become the short side of a platoon as he has handled left-handers quite well throughout his career.  In 197 plate appearances against lefties, he has a .295/.360/.489 line compared to a meager .224/.257(!)/.338 line in 222 plate appearances against right-handers.

If deployed properly, Evans can offer a bit of value to the Pirates and since he cost them virtually nothing to acquire, it is a decent enough move.  Low impact, zero risk and limited upside.

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December 6, 2011

Pirates Sign Clint Barmes

By Paul Sporer

As you almost certainly already know, two weeks ago the Pirates brought in Clint Barmes on a free agent deal worth $10.5 million dollars over two years to be their shortstop.  What you might not know is this fascinating tidbit sent over to me by ESPN’s Mark Simon from this piece:

Amazingly, this deal was the Pirates first free-agent signing to a contract with a total value of at least $10 million since inking third baseman Steve Buechele for four years and $11 million in the 1991-92 offseason.

Wow, that’s pretty interesting.  By the way, Buechele didn’t last long in the Steel City with his four year deal.  After being acquired by the Pirates on August 30th in 1991 and signed in the subsequent offseason, he was dealt to the Chicago Cubs on July 11th of the 1992 season after just 111 games as a Pirate.  He hit .248/.327/.396 (good enough for a 105 OPS+) in 399 at-bats for the Pirates with 12 home runs.  He brought back Danny Jackson in the Cubs trade (who pitched well enough for Pittsburgh but was subsequently drafted by the Florida Marlins as the 53rd pick in the expansion draft that November).

OK, that was a fierce little tangent there, back to Barmes.  For those wondering, it is pronounced “Bar-mess”, but I prefer to pronounce it as “Barmz” because it is funny to me (and probably me alone).  If you clicked through to Simon’s piece you saw some interesting notes about Barmes’ defense including his ranking 4th amongst shortstops in Defensive Runs Saved with 12 behind Brendan Ryan (18), Alex Gonzalez (15) and Elvis Andrus (13).  Katie Sharp, who did the Barmes tidbit in the article Simon sent, noted that Pirates incumbent Ronny Cedeno checked in with eight DRS.  While Cedeno was a positive for the 20th-ranked defense, Barmes is an improvement at the most important position.

While the Barmes signing is far from a big splash, it is similar to the Rod Barajas move in that it offers an incremental improvement over last year’s production at the position without costing an arm, a leg or both.  Barmes was better than Cedeno with both his bat (.308 to .271 in wOBA) and glove (7.9 to 6.1 in the FanGraphs fielding measure as well as the aforementioned DRS from ESPN/BIS).  Cedeno held an edge in base running (2.6) according to FanGraphs, but Barmes (1.9) was still an asset on the basepaths and ranked 9th amongst shortstops with at least 450 plate appearances.

What remains to be seen with Barmes is how much of his hitting advantage he can maintain when playing half of his games at PNC Park instead of Minute Maid Park.  As Sharp mentions:

He’ll be challenged to retain that home-run power as a Pirate. Minute Maid Park in Houston boosted homer production by seven percent for right-handed batters in 2011.  PNC Park deflated right-handed batters’ home runs by 16 percent over the last three seasons, according to ballpark factors from Baseball Info Solutions.

A quick look at Barmes’s Minute Maid hits laid on top of PNC Park’s dimensions shows all five of his home runs in Houston wouldn’t have had a shot in Pittsburgh:

Three didn’t even make it to the warning track.  A silver lining within his 2011 stats is the fact that he mashed in PNC Park albeit in a miniscule 31 plate appearance sample.  He hit .385/.484/.615 with two home runs in eight games, far and away his best numbers in any venue during 2011.  For his career, he has a .276/.347/.425 line in 99 plate appearances with four home runs.  His .772 OPS is his 3rd-highest of any venue where he has had at least 65 plate appearances.  Coors Field, his former home, is unsurprisingly the best at .794 with Busch Stadium III just behind at .784.  Thankfully for Barmes, Cedeno didn’t really set the offensive bar too high.

The bottom line is that Cedeno was the 2nd-worst shortstop in baseball with the bat (according to wRC+ & wOBA) amongst those with 450+ plate appearances and while his defense gave him positive value overall, he only “rose” to 5th-worst in total WAR at 1.4, tied with Ian Desmond.  That needed to be improved and we all know the Pirates weren’t going to lure Jose Reyes in even if they topped Miami’s offer.

Barmes is a cost-efficient, sensible alternative.  According to FanGraphs, he’s been valued well over $5 million dollars (his 2012 salary) three of the last four years ($8.8, $7.7, $2.5 and $14.1 million since 2008) so there is wiggle room for his current production level to slip and still be worth his contract. If prospect Chase D’Arnaud proves himself ready for a full-time spot at shortstop in either of the next two years, Barmes can slide over to second base without incident.  This was another positive move by the Pirates front office.

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