August 2, 2011 · 10:39 pm
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No Hollywood Ending?

Written by: John Franco on August 2, 2011.

By John Franco

If the 2011 season was a formulaic romantic comedy, Tuesday’s game would be the nadir of the story arc, the fleeting glimpse of rock bottom that must be reached before all the couples get together in the end. The six home runs the Cubs hit would be set to an amusing musical montage, and Clint Hurdle would take a long, pensive walk along the Allegheny River – probably during a surprise rainstorm.

Before the season, Las Vegas oddsmakers set the over/under for the Pirates’ win total at 67.5, so winning the division would certainly be a great Hollywood story. But first things first: with 54 wins in their first 107 games, the Pirates are a safe bet to reach the over on their Vegas number with room to spare.

After five straight losses, including a horrific 11-6 shellacking by the Cubs on Tuesday, you might doubt that the Pirates can even win 14 of their next 55 games to clear their over/under. Even though the Pirates will make it, that 68-win prediction is going to be more accurate than many fans would like. Hollywood may get things wrong sometimes (see Exhibit 1 -Green Lantern – or better yet, don’t) but Vegas rarely does.

When the Pirates cruised into the All-Star break in the middle of the pennant race, most critics said that it wouldn’t last. Their strong pitching was based on luck and their record in 1-run games was unsustainably good. Everyone expected a disastrous sequel in the second half.

When the Pirates faced a 10-game stretch against the best teams in the National League (St. Louis, Atlanta and Philadelphia), many fans feared the worst. The Pirates salvaged a game against the Cardinals and split four with the Braves before getting swept by the Phillies. With first place in the rearview mirror, many feared that it would be a long time before the Pirates sat atop the division again, doomed to several more seasons on basic cable before getting a shot to move up to prime time.

When the Pirates acquired Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick at the trade deadline, most analysts said it wasn’t enough. Lee hit two home runs in his first game with the Pirates, but it was the lone bright spot in a 5-3 loss on Monday. Ludwick has been hitless in his first two games as a Pirate, but nothing he could have done on Tuesday would have saved them. The Pirates needed some new stars, and they got character actors instead.

Taking this analogy to its inevitable and possibly overwrought conclusion, where does that leave the Pirates for the rest of the season? Their Hollywood ending seems to be slipping away, while fans are waiting for one more plot twist that will save their story arc. Even if the saving twist doesn’t come, fans can still remember the great start to the season and the excitement it generated. Let’s not forget – the first half of the 2011 season was the best thing the Pirates have done in a long time. Thousands of fans rediscovered the amazing ballpark experience at PNC Park and water cooler talk throughout the city centered around the Pirates instead of the latest reality tv sensation.

I haven’t seen a lot of it in my 16 years in the city, but I hear it all the time – Pittsburgh was a baseball town before it was a football town. The Pirates are a show worth watching again, even if they can’t put together the perfect ending this year. Besides – even if the magical ending doesn’t arrive, the fireworks will still be comparable to anything Michael Bay can put together.

7 Comments

Filed under John Franco Posts, Off-the-Field, Pirates Fans

7 Responses to No Hollywood Ending?

  1. Shawn Meddock
    August 2, 2011 at 11:38 pm

    I agree completely. As the Pirates are seemingly fading out of pennant contention its easy to overlook just how much success they have had this year. They are relevant and marketable again, and have sparked a remarkable amount of attention. I have been able to follow the club much easier this year because I know each night there is a competitive, scrappy team taking the field that is committed to winning. This all starts with a strong manager and good talent, things that have been missing in Pittsburgh, but are certainly here now.

    Reply
  2. Steve Reigh
    August 3, 2011 at 9:57 am

    As a young (24 yr/old) Buccos fan, it certainly is nice to see a team in PGH with at least a little success. As sad as I am to see them losing their grips on the NL Central race, I have not given up, especially knowing that the future looks bright.

    GO Buccos!

    Sincerely,
    The only guy wearing a Buccos hat in Seattle that is actually a Buccos fan.

    Reply
  3. Jeff
    August 3, 2011 at 11:28 am

    I appreciate the positive view that Pittsburgh has (regardless of how this season turns out), turned a page. However, let’s not be hasty here.

    First, Correia is terrible at home. I don’t know why, but that doesn’t mean he is cooked for the season. The pitching, perhaps bolstered by a 6th starter in Lincoln or Ohlendorf, can continue to produce. I still have faith that the crew can put our team in a position to win. Moreover, with the return of Tabata, Doumit, and Presley, our offense becomes more potent. Despite injury, if Presley can produce even similarly to where he was, he can re-spark the offense.

    Second, it’s a rough patch. They happen. It seems like too many fans forget a 7 game losing streak earlier in the season which included the Dodgers spanking us. We were above .500 and that streak made it go the other way, which Pittsburgh recovered from. What will be telling with this team is the ability to replicate that recovery so late in the season. If they do (and I hope they do), it will show the tenacity of the players and the value of Clint Hurdle. It’s August, we’re a few back, but with the stretch of inter-division games coming up there’s no reason that we can’t move back into the picture.

    Third, and my final point, is that it can be difficult to be a Pirates fan. You see, the way the Sox opened the year had some wondering, but ultimately everyone knew they’d recover and do well. The Yankees and Phillies are the same. Proven teams go through difficult times. What we will see is if the Pirates have the stuff to be a proven team. Such a reputation is earned over years, but perhaps this is the first year? It is harder for a team with 18 consecutive losing seasons to rally behind losing streaks the way the aforementioned teams do. However, as fans, it is our responsibility to believe that is what will be done.

    It’s early August. I trust in Hurdle and the Pirates players, position and pitcher alike. Just watch, they will right the ship (I love this analogy for the team), and we’re going to do to the Brewers what we haven’t done in a long time. Win. We may not take the division, but a page has been turned in Pittsburgh. This current losing is simply part of that story.

    Reply
  4. B
    August 3, 2011 at 3:18 pm

    Don’t hurt yourself jumping off the bandwagon.
    Lots of reasonable fans never predicted a Central title for this team. I think they can remain competitive for the remainder of ’11, but they’ve clearly hit a bump and it’s unchartered territory for much of the roster.
    The pitcher most expected to plateau was Karstens, and he looks as good as ever. The past week may force a creative solution with the rotation, as the wear and familiarity is starting to show.
    and I’m happy to take action on that 68 +/- if you think that’s how they’re going to finish.

    Reply
  5. Robert
    August 3, 2011 at 4:42 pm

    Derek Lee and Ryan Ludwick are professional hitters that know how to hit with RISP. Lee, even in a down year, has more HR and 2B(s) with runners on than he does with the bases empty; in 53 fewer ABs. Lee hits .280 for his career with RISP and his OPS is higher than it is with no one on base. Ryan Ludwick has 8 of his 11 HR this season with runners on base and his average goes up with RISP (.298 for his career with an .887 OPS).

    Both of those men can show Pedro a better approach at the plate. I can’t say it isn’t being addressed but his problem is 100% mental. I have the benefit of a DVR at home and can see the difference in his approach from AB t0 AB. When he’s in the box, staying calm, and taking a natural swing he hits the ball with more authority and to the middle of the field. When he’s up there putting pressure on himself to do to much then his head and front shoulder fly out of the contact zone too early, he’s out of balance, and much more rigid in his hands and wrists.

    I’m not sure if the moderator or other readers have experience in this area but I do. If you have a DVR and the ability to take a long look (which I’m sure the Pirates do) then the difference is actually quite clear. Pedro has the key to the offense in his head. When he’s calm and confident in his abilities then the Pirates offense becomes a lot more formidable.

    Reply
  6. John Franco
    August 3, 2011 at 9:09 pm

    Thanks everyone for the thoughtful comments. Some replies.

    -Watching Pedro, he does look like he is improving at the plate, even if the results don’t show it. He’s getting hits going the other way. He’s laying off of tough pitches. The results aren’t consistent yet and he still does some dumb things, but you can see the potential more clearly than you could at the beginning of the year. I hope Robert is right and D-Lee takes some time to sit with Pedro. I think they could be a good match.

    -I’m definitely not jumping off the bandwagon yet and I expect the Pirates to finish well above their 68 win projection. I am just starting to think they’ll finish between 74-78 wins, a little short of the 82 that everyone is hoping for.

    -At the end of the day, .500 would be great but this year is really about development. If J-Mac, Morton, Alvarez and Presley are making meaningful contributions in 2012 because of what they learned this year, then 2011 was a success regardless of what happened.

    -Having said what I just said above, one of the ‘development’ things that has happened this year and needs to keep happening IS the growing of the bandwagon. If there are still 25,000 raucous fans at the games in September, and people are talking about the Pirates in the off-season, THAT is also a win for the Buccos in 2011 regardless of how they finish the year.

    Reply

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