Pedro Alvarez: ripple effects

By John Franco

The Pirates activated Jose Tabata and sent Pedro Alvarez back to Triple-A Indianapolis on Tuesday. Alvarez got 20 games to prove himself with the Pirates after returning from his injury and rehab stint, and did not acquit himself well. He will likely spend the next three weeks at Indianapolis and return after the Triple-A season ends on September 5th. In his absence, the Pirates will use Josh Harrison and Brandon Wood at third base. Alvarez’ demotion leads to questions about his future and how the Pirates’ offense will look in his absence.

In 75 plate appearances after his return from a quad injury, Alvarez hit just .174/.230/.246 with 1 home run and 5 RBI. He struck out 25 times and drew just 4 walks. Whether he was overmatched, not properly healed or just rusty from his layoff and time at Triple-A, Alvarez did not fare well with the Pirates. His BABIP was .256, so he was a little unlucky, but bad luck wasn’t the only reason he struggled.

Prior to his callup, Alvarez had scorched Triple-A pitching, hitting .365/.461/.587 in 76 plate appearances, drawing 12 walks and striking out just 18 times. His .444 BABIP had a lot to do with his success, but his contact rate and walk rates were much better in the minors. Neal Huntington said that Alvarez might have been called up too soon after returning from injury, but I’m not sure I see it. He showed improved plate discipline and was healthy enough to play. The Pirates were getting terrible production from their third base position and needed to win some games against tough opponents. Alvarez hit just .208 with 2 home runs and 42 strikeouts in 125 at-bats before his injury, but his performance at Triple-A made him look ready enough to try again. The Pirates’ talent evaluators surely see things that I’m not seeing, but I wonder if Huntington is creating a bit of revisionist history with his comments.

So where does this leave Alvarez? At 24, it’s too early to call Alvarez a quad-A player, especially since he was pretty successful as a 23-year old in the majors in 2010. Alvarez’ OPS+ from 112 last year would certainly make him a valuable asset to the team if he could repeat it. In the long run, he is still a key piece of the Pirates’ future – their next best power prospect is a high school kid looking for a place to cash a big check for $5 million. So the Pirates will leave Alvarez in Indianapolis for three weeks and hope that he can get his groove back. If he hits well, Alvarez will certainly get another chance at regular playing time when he gets back. If he doesn’t, he might spend a lot of time on the bench while working on his swing before the games. Maybe watching Brandon Wood will provide the motivation he needs.

What about the Pirates’ lineup without Alvarez? You wouldn’t think that losing a .174 hitter would be a bad thing, but with Derrek Lee on the DL, the lineup will have a different feel. Garrett Jones will be spending most of his time at first base, with Tabata, Andrew McCutchen, Ryan Ludwick manning the outfield with occasional visits from Matt Diaz and Xavier Paul. The Pirates will also activate Alex Presley from his rehab assignment in a few days, which will likely cut Ludwick and Diaz’ playing time significantly.

With an outfield of Presley, Tabata and McCutchen, and Josh Harrison playing third base, the Pirates will have a more contact-oriented lineup. (Sorry Brandon Wood, your 32% strikeout rate isn’t helping here.) For a team with the third highest strikeout total in the National League, a little more contact would probably help the Pirates exploit their speed. If Ryan Doumit can stay healthy and provide the power that Alvarez never did, the lineup could be more powerful and make better contact. That’s a lot of wishing and hoping, but maybe the Pirates have a little bit of magic pixie dust left over from the miraculous Josh Bell signing.  After all, they did just win two games against the Cardinals.