Ronny Cedeno’s option

By John Franco

Sometimes it’s inconvenient that players are human beings with emotions that can get in the way of treating them like Strat-O-Matic cards. As of now, the Pirates will  have a gaping hole at shortstop next season, and in a vacuum, the best way to fill that hole would be to jerk Ronny Cedeno around. As I’ve written before, the Pirates have a $3 million team option for Cedeno next year, and it’s likely that he’s their best option. At the same time, their best move for the next 2 weeks might be to sit Cedeno to give Brandon Wood one last chance to win the job.

The Pirates know what they are getting in Cedeno. In 118 games, he has been worth 1.6 fWAR (the wins above replacement statistic listed on Fangraphs.com) and has a line of .258/.306/.352. Last season, he posted a line of .256/.293/.382 for 1.1 fWAR. The main difference in his value is his defense: 3.6 runs below average in 2010 and 5.4 runs above average this year. That’s a swing of almost an entire win, based on a UZR stat that tends to fluctuate from season to season. A 3-year average of UZR would give a more accurate representation, and Cedeno’s 3-year UZR is basically zero. So expecting him to make a significant contribution on defense is probably not a good idea, but Cedeno’s “bat” is probably worth about a win at shortstop. On the free agent market, a win could cost $4 or $5 million, so Cedeno’s option actually represents a discount for the Pirates. It’s not good, but it might be the best the Pirates can do.

The Pirates’ other internal options – primarily Wood and Chase D’arnaud - are utility players at best. D’arnaud (.200/.223/.264) has been even worse than Cedeno on offense, and doesn’t have his glove. Batting average isn’t always the most important thing, but D’arnaud derives most of his value from his average and hasn’t cracked .270 in the high minors. Wood is a nice redemption story, but he’s only redeemed himself to the point of being a serviceable 25th man on a second division roster. It might make sense to give Wood or D’arnaud another 10 games to make sure that they aren’t the answer, but I’m not optimistic that things would change.

After Wood and D’arnaud, the next best option would be Pedro Ciriaco. I really don’t know why the Pirates kept him on the major league roster for most of the season without playing him, but I doubt it was a creative ploy to get him ready to start next year. He will turn 26 in a couple of weeks, and if the Pirates don’t think it’s worth playing Wood or D’arnaud to find out what they have, then maybe they should give the playing time to Ciriaco.

The good folks at mlbtraderumors.com maintain a list of potential free agents, and the list of available replacements for Cedeno is ugly. While I think Jose Reyes would be a great signing, I think I have a better chance of starting for the 2012 Pirates than he does. After that, the “best” options are probably Clint Barmes(age 33) or Omar Infante (age 30). Both of them would probably require a 2 or 3-year deal in the range of $10-$15 million. When you start to think that bringing back Jack Wilson might be a good strategy, it’s safe to say that your options are limited.

Unfortunately, evaluating other options means benching Cedeno for some or all of the next 2 weeks, then bringing him back for next year anyway. If you offered me $3 million for one year at my job, I’d certainly be ecstatic. I’m honestly not sure if Cedeno will feel the same way – he might not be happy if the Pirates pick up his option and prevent him from testing the free agent market. Or he could be ecstatic to be guaranteed a ton of cash and a starting job. It’s probably worth rolling the dice to find out if the Pirates’ alternatives could come through, and hoping that Cedeno doesn’t mind being treated like a Strat-O-Matic card for a few days.