Pirates Sign Erik Bedard

By Paul Sporer

If you were up late last night you may have seen the rumored interest by the Pirates in starting pitcher Erik Bedard as reported by Nick Cafardo on Twitter.  Just over 13 hours later, Marc Brassard is reporting via his Twitter (aww ya, seven years of French classes in high school & college finally paying dividends!) that the two sides have reached a deal for $4.5 million dollars for the 32-year old lefty.  This is exactly the kind of signing the Pirates should seek out: reasonably priced, high upside assets.

Bedard was developing into a superstar pitcher a few years ago after a pair of excellent seasons in Baltimore during which he threw 378 innings with a 28-16 record, 3.47 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 and 3.1 K/BB at the ages of 27 and 28.  On the heels of his 2007 season in which he led the league in strikeout (10.9 K/9) and hit rates allowed (7.0 H/9), the Orioles flipped him to the Seattle Mariners for a load of young talent (the prize of which was Adam Jones), but he failed to live up to expectations in his two and a half seasons there throwing just 255 innings.  His 91 innings in 2011 prior to being traded to Boston were actually a career-high in Seattle (81 and 83 the two years before).

Though he struggled mightily with his health, Bedard remained a very good pitcher in the rare instances when he was on the mound carrying a 3.31 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8.8 K/9 and 2.5 K/BB as a Mariner.  Bedard checkered injury history drove down his price making him the perfect buy for the Pirates.  Using the FanGraphs dollar value indicator, he has been worth $4.6, $8.4 and $10.6 million dollars the last three years despite having not reached 130 innings in any of the three seasons.

Compare that lefty Paul Maholm who saw his $9.75 million dollar option declined this offseason to the displeasure of some (though the Bedard move tempered that displeasure).  Maholm has been worth $14.2, $8.0 and $9.2 million dollars the last three years while throwing an average of 181 innings (though his total has dipped yearly since 2008’s peak of 206).  Hindsight is 20/15 so it is easy to say that Bedard at $4.5 is better than Maholm at $9.75.  Picking up Maholm’s option wouldn’t have been awful, but I think it was wise to decline it and see how the market shakes out and if necessary go back and try to re-sign Maholm.

This deal now gives the Pirates their 1-2 punch of strikeout pitchers atop the rotation with Bedard and James McDonald in some form or fashion.  Then there is Charlie Morton, who had hip surgery back in October, but the Pirates are hopeful he will be ready by the time the season starts.  The Pirates are also still involved with Jeff Francis, another signing I would fully endorse.  Beyond that, the backend of the rotation is still unsettled.

My only fear with Bedard is that the Pirates don’t learn from the Astros and Brett Myers.  I thought it was a great move when the Astros signed the maligned righty on the heels of a down 2009 for just $3.1 million dollars.  He hadn’t done much in terms of results for the three years prior to signing, but the skills were still evident and worth the financial, one-year gamble.  If he pans out, flip him and if not, no harm.  He panned out in spades with a career year including a 3.35 ERA and 1.28 WHIP through mid-July with several interested suitors as the trade deadline neared.

Instead of acquiring pieces to help replenish their woefully depleted farm system, they balked at the many Myers offers and held onto him.  The day after the trade deadline they signed him to a two year, $23 million dollar contract with a $10 million dollar option in 2013 that could vest depending on 2012 performance.  In 2010, they got 224 innings with a 3.14 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 and 2.7 K/BB resulting in some down ballot Cy Young votes.  His 2011 results were worse (4.46 ERA, 1.31 WHIP), but the skills weren’t bad as evidenced by his 3.75 xFIP and 3.83 SIERA.  Both Houston teams were awful.  Myers was never going to be a part of the next good Houston Astros team so there was really no reason to sign him to that extension.  The initial risk paid off, but they didn’t properly parlay into help for their team down the road.

If Bedard excels as a Pirate and draws significant interest at the trade deadline, I hope the front office is smart enough to move him for some young talent that can help advance the overall progress of this team.  Even Bedard recaptures his 2006-2007 “durability”, he is still a long-term injury risk (click here if you’re unfamiliar with just how extensive his injury history is) and doesn’t provide any real value to the Pirates beyond 2012.  The only upside of Bedard staying healthy in the early part of 2012 will be that it drives up the price in July.

This is a great signing for the Pirates, but it’s part of a two-step process.  Obviously if Bedard fails to pitch enough or sees his skills fade considerably then step two can’t be enacted, but otherwise he has to be available for trade next summer.

By the way, I am aware of the other scenario whereby trading Bedard wouldn’t happen.  If the Pirates are somehow in contention again this summer, it will likely be due in large part to Bedard and trading him would be virtually impossible.  I’ll grant that, but I find it to be such an improbable scenario that I won’t bother delving too deeply into it (sorry for those who are overly optimistic about 2012, just being honest).  The team is moving in the right direction, but there are still more than a few steps away.  This past summer’s draft was a huge step, but it won’t pay off overnight.

There are still some more moves to be made and it will be interesting to see if they bring in Francis or Derrek Lee or better yet, both.