Pirates Sign Nate McLouth

By Paul Sporer

It is easy for Pirates fans to get nostalgic about Nate McLouth.  The one-time Pirate was one of the few bright spots on the 95-loss team from 2008.  Jason Bay, Adam LaRoche, Ryan Doumit and Xavier Nady all played pretty well, too, but it was McLouth who played 152 games (a team high) hitting .276/.356/.497 with a league-high 46 doubles as well as 26 home runs and 23 stolen bases in 685 plate appearances.  He represented the team in the All-Star Game, won a Gold Gove and even garnered a down ballot MVP vote (finishing 27^th out 27).

The Pirates had an in-his-prime centerpiece for their lineup.  Except that they also a generational superstar waiting in the wings at the same position in Andrew McCutchen.  So on June 3^rd of 2009, the Pirates traded McLouth to the Atlanta Braves for Charlie Morton, Jeff Locke and Gorkys Hernandez.  You probably know how this story plays out.  McLouth was adequate in the remaining 84 games in 2009 before falling off of a cliff the last two years.

He has played just 85 and 81 games the last two years with Atlanta totaling a .210/.322/.328 line with 10 home runs and 11 stolen bases in 609 plate appearances.  He has been nothing like the McLouth that Pirates fans were sad to see go back in 2009 and as such the Braves declined his option meaning he was available for just $1.75 million dollars on a one-year deal.

In 2009, McLouth still registered an above average .350 wOBA.  It was down from his back-to-back seasons of .364 and .369, but hardly a bad year.  So seeing his 2010 wOBA at a ghastly .283 is a bit of a shock given that the skills profile from 2009 to 2010 wasn’t markedly different.

He had the exact same 11.5% walk rate, almost identical batted ball percentages with his groundballs, flyballs and line drives and while his strikeout rate rose 3% to 19.8%, it can’t be the sole reason he went from All-Star player to well below replacement.

His luck turned drastically as his BABIP dipped 6% from .281 to .221 and his home run per flyball rate fell 4% from 11.4% to 7.5% which I guess in a small sample of just 288 plate appearances can have the colossal effect that it did taking him from a 3.4 fWAR player to -1.2.

This past season saw drastic changes in his batted ball distribution including a 7% rise in groundball rate as well as a 9% drop in flyball rate (but a 10% jump in infield flyball rate).  He simply wasn’t making as much quality contact as he had in the past.  So even a career-best 14% walk rate and an improved 16% strikeout rate couldn’t yield much more than replacement level results (.306 wOBA, 0.2 fWAR).

Now 30, McLouth returns to his original organization in hopes of getting his career back on track as the Pirates fourth outfielder/first bat off the bench.  Of course nothing is guaranteed with Alex Presley, either, who has just 256 plate appearances under his belt heading into his age 26 season.  The cost is right for a move like this.  The team knows what McLouth can do at his best and taking a shot that he can return to those levels, or close to at least, for under $2 million dollars is just fine.

I don’t love the move, but I certainly don’t hate it, either.  The only way I would hate it is if McLouth ends up blocking a younger, more deserving player.  Say for example Presley.  But it appears the opening day outfield will feature McCutchen, Presley and Jose Tabata and that is how it should be for now.