The Pirates’ Offensive Offense

By John Franco

Through their first 7 games (as of April 13th), the Pirates have scored a grand total of 11 runs, and five of those runs came in one game – last Sunday’s win over the Phillies. The Pirates have already been shut out twice, including a 1-hitter by Matt Cain where pitcher James McDonald had the Pirates’ only hit. It’s easy to look at the Pirates’ opponents –  Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Vance Worley, Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Chris Capuano, and Cain – and chalk their struggles up to bunch of tough matchups. Their best games did come against their weakest competition: they scored five runs in the Worley game and two in the Capuano game, their only multi-run games of the season. The Pirates are on pace for just over 250 runs this season, a historically bad number they will certainly exceed, but the first few games have revealed some disturbing trends.

Of the Pirates’ top 9 offensive players – their opening day lineup plus Casey McGehee - only two have drawn a walk. As a team, the Pirates have drawn 7 walks and struck out 58 times. Their 26.4% strikeout rate is even worse than last year’s mark of 24.1%. Their offensive slash line is .178/.216/.260 and that includes a .360/.429/.440 line from Andrew McCutchen. Leadoff hitter Alex Presley is hitting a respectable .269, but he has yet to draw a walk, so that is also his on-base percentage. Pedro Alvarez hit a towering home run that left PNC Park on a fly, but that was his only hit in 16 at-bats, and he has struck out 10 times. James McDonald and Kevin Correia each have one hit – the same number as Alvarez, Neil Walker and Rod Barajas.

Coming into the season, the Pirates’ offense wasn’t expected to be good. Barajas posted a .287 OBP last year, while Barmes posted a .312 mark, and those were the players brought in to improve the offense. Presley posted a 2.7% walk rate last year and was penciled into the leadoff spot this year. Alvarez hasn’t hit well in the majors since 2010. The Pirates were counting on a rebound from Alvarez, continued improvement from Presley, Walker and Jose Tabata, and for McCutchen to continue following the Barry Bonds career trajectory.

Even with the Pirates’ horrible start, there have been some signs of hope. Walker has posted a strikeout rate similar to his 2011 season, so there is every reason to expect a rebound for him.  McGehee has gotten off to a good start. Presley has looked good at the plate, and looks like someone who could hit .290 or better, despite his aversion to walks. The Pirates played Josh Harrison at shortstop yesterday, moving a step closer to keeping Matt Hague on the roster. Tonight, the Pirates will face Barry Zito, who was the Giants’ worst starter last year. Starling Marte has a .286/.342/.457 for Triple-A Indianapolis and should be able to help the Pirates’ offense by mid-season.

And, of course, McCutchen has hit like Bonds early in the season. Better than Bonds, actually. Barry won his first MVP award in 1990, his fifth season. This is only McCutchen’s fourth season, so this year is a freebie in his endless chase for Bonds’ legacy. Bonds won that MVP on a team that won 95 games, and was surrounded by other players who could actually hit, but the year before his MVP, the ’89 Pirates ranked 8th out of 12 NL teams in runs per game. It’s a stretch, but if you are looking for reasons to be optimistic about this year’s Pirate offense, waiting until next year might be your best bet.