Do the Pirates Need Pitching?

by John Franco

The hot trade rumor of the day is the Pirates’ pursuit of Justin Upton. I’m sure they’re interested, but the price the Diamondbacks are asking for Upton will have a lot more to do with his journey to the North Side than the Pirates’ interest in adding an MVP-caliber hitter to fill a black hole in their lineup. I’m a lot more interested to know if the Pirates are serious about adding another arm to their rotation. They have been linked to everyone from Ryan Dempster to Cole Hamels to Jason Vargas to Jon Lester. Much like the MVP candidate Upton, nobody is going to turn down a potential Cy Young candidate like Hamels, but do the Pirates need to add another starter?

The current Pirates’ rotation is led by James McDonald (9-3, 2.59 with a 3.19 FIP and 3.74 xFIP) and AJ Burnett (10-2, 3.68, 3.62/3.60 FIP/xFIP coming into today’s start). Erik Bedard is 4-10 with a 4.80 ERA, but his underlying numbers are better than that (4.04/4.19 FIP/xFIP). Kevin Correia is 6-6 with a 4.25 ERA, but his underlying numbers are worse (5.02/4.67 FIP/xFIP). Jeff Karstens has done a creditable job as a number five starter since returning from injury (2-2, 3.94 in 6 starts, with a 2.54 FIP and 3.96 xFIP).

The Pirates have been actively shopping Correia, but I’m not sure they’ll get anything of value for him if they do manage to trade him. Brad Lincoln has started 5 games for the Bucs, but he still looks a lot more comfortable out of the bullpen than he does in the rotation. The Pirates do have some arms at Triple-A Indianapolis that could contribute, but expecting them to outperform Correia or Karstens might be asking too much.

Rudy Owens has been the best starter in Indianapolis this year (7-4, 2.89 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) and would probably be the first pitcher called up if the Pirates wanted another option from the minors. Jeff Locke got four starts for the Pirates last year, and the results weren’t good (0-3, 6.48 ERA, 5 K/10 BB in 16.2 innings), and he has been the Indians’ best starter this year (7-5, 2.95 ERA, 1.23 WHIP). Owens doesn’t have the strikeout rate that Locke has (6.5 K/9 for Owens, and 7.8 for Locke), but his control has been better.

The Pirates also have Justin Wilson as an option at Triple-A. Wilson has a 7-4 record with a 4.06 ERA, and while he has an impressive strikeout rate (9.2 K/9), his 4.3 BB/9 shows that he might not be ready to be an above average starter in the major leagues right now.

If the Pirates don’t think Karstens or Correia can get the job done at the back of the rotation, and/or don’t feel like their three Triple-A hurlers are ready to step into the rotation and do a better job, their best option is to make a trade. They could probably get a pitcher like Dempster or Vargas for one of their Triple-A starters. Getting a pitcher like Lester or Hamels (or Zack Greinke, if the Brewers don’t end up signing him to an extension) would cost more – Starling Marte and/or one of Gerrit Cole/Jameson Taillon.

There is certainly a possibility that Karstens or Correia will warrant replacement, or that Bedard could get hurt, but given the Pirates’ solid group of replacement candidates, the rotation isn’t their biggest area of need. This is a team that started the rapidly pumpkining Drew Sutton and the defensively ‘creative’ Garrett Jones as their corner outfielders today. If the Pirates are going to cash in a chip like Owens or Locke, or even Marte or Cole, they would be better served by adding another hitter. If Vargas or Dempster can be had for cash and the Pirates are willing to spend the money, it would be a worthwhile investment, but their primary focus should be elsewhere.